Yesterday, John Wynn noted the numbers look tough for Kay Hagan and that she lacks a clear path victory. I disagree with his reading of the numbers but I also think there are factors more important than polling. Candidates still matter and Thom Tillis is a weak one.
Nothing illustrates that more than the fundraising numbers he delivered. Hagan outraised Tillis $3.6 million to $1.6 million in the second quarter. The three or four weeks following the primary win should have made May his biggest fundraising month until the fall. He either didn’t do the work and left a bunch of money on the table or nobody has the confidence in him to open their wallets. The money is certainly out there.
But it’s not just money. Tillis doesn’t know when to shut up. He’s made outlandish comments throughout his career, often trying to sound clever or cute. Instead, they make him sound silly, mean or out of touch.
On social media, he engages in the tit-for-tat that has usually been the realm of partisan gadflies. His lame attempts to wrap Kay Hagan around Harry Reid diminish him as a candidate. Instead of trying to rise above the fray and engaging in more serious dialogue, he’s wallowing in petty partisanship with nonsensical tweets.
Tillis is one of those people who always thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. That may be true in a Republican caucus, but that’s a pretty low bar. Elsewhere, though, he comes across as just another pompous politician whose ego is bigger than his intellect.
Tillis looks more like an undisciplined candidate than a top-tier Senate recruit and contrary to John’s analysis, the polling data’s not helping him. After $17 million of negative ads, Kay Hagan is still leading Tillis. And while Obama may not be popular, the legislature is less so. Hagan can make the case that she’s not Obama but Tillis can’t make the case that he’s not the legislature.
In North Carolina, Democrats’ problem is the national political environment. Republicans’ problem is a weak candidate with an even weaker record. This race is a long way from over.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Bonus points for “partisan gadflies.”
Tillis is a brigand, nothing more. He has gotten to this particular point by not only knowing the least, but knowing it the loudest in a group that thinks him to be a godsend to how to run government.
Regrettably I must concede that he certainly does know how to run government; right into the ground.
I am very relieved to find this comeback to that article predicting Kay Hagan’s demise! If someone is going to be “left leaning” they certainly need to write articles that accomplish it – which the previous article did not. And, I particularly liked your point that Tillis can’t make the case he isn’t the NCGA – for that he truly is! Among other things.
Thanks, Pat. John Wynne, who wrote the previous article, is not left leaning. He’s the resident conservative writer.
But Wynne is not as competent a blogger as you are. If you do want this conservative counterweight feature, please find someone worthy of your blog.
Who is going to take more votes away from Sean Haugh, by pretending to be for compassion and prosperity while actually being a control freak? Kay Haggard, or Thom Thumb?
I believe in Gold; it is my King!
With all my heart to him I’ll sing;
I’ll raise my voice in praise and joy,
In grand amens my tongue employ.
I believe in Gold; it is Rand’s Son.
On earth to dwell its soul did come.
It healed the sick; the dead it raised.
Good works were its; its name be praised.
I believe in Gold; oh blessed name!
As Rand’s Son it came to reign
‘Mid mortal men, its earthly kin,
To save them from the woes of sin.
I believe in Gold, who marked the path,
Who did gain all its Father hath,
Who said to men: “Come, follow me,
That ye, my friends, with Rand may be.”
Wouldn’t it be interesting if the polls would exclude Hagan, for a Tillis vs Haugh question, and exclude Tillis, for a Hagan vs Haugh question? Just like they exclude Haugh for a Hagan vs Tillis question. After all. Hagan or Tillis, just like Haugh, ALSO might die before the ballots are printed.
Haugh could conceivably beat both of his demopublican opponents, individually.
Thom Mills and PPP… always a reliable source of comfort to the Democratic party.
Yes since both do rely on reality and that certainly does give comfort.
RandGoldOwl. The libertarians have the secret secret ninja knowledge. Why, remember in 1992 where they got slightly LESS trounced for another year of 4% instead of 3%? SOMEDAY, they may even get 4.1%! I know right? Keep the dream alive.
Meanwhile, more lies and more money wasted! Hooray!
Frequently, Thomas, you throw in real gems. I really liked this one:
“Tillis is one of those people who always thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. That may be true in a Republican caucus, but that’s a pretty low bar.”
I was mention the same quote. Quite the blog slam Thomas. Kudos