never forget 9-11

McCrory Vulnerable: PPP has released a new poll detailing McCrory’s approval and head-to-head matchups against potential Democrat opponents in 2016. McCrory has a dismal 35% approval rating. 53% disapprove, and 12% are morons. Last month, it was 39%. The cause of this decline? Almost certainly the news coming out of DHHS. It got a lot of coverage and voters responded very negatively.

The gubernatorial matchups:

48% Cooper, 42% McCrory
47% Cowell, 43% McCrory
45% Stein, 42% McCrory
44% Meeker, 42% McCrory

At this point, Roy Cooper is the strongest candidate for the Democrats, leading McCrory by 6. Meeker appears to be the weakest. However, this is almost certainly due to name recognition. As Attorney General for over a decade, Cooper has a strong advantage in name recognition and is popular in the traditionally Democratic East. The other candidates are well-known in the Triangle but their names are not as familiar to residents in other parts of the state.

McCrory’s support far exceeds his approval rating, which is not unusual. There are lots of people dissatisfied with McCrory but who will back any Republican running for governor. This does not make the governor’s situation any less dire; the 42% number should concern him greatly. It is, however, a very long time until the 2016 election, and he has ample time to turn things around. Whether or not he can is the question.

Ellmers Could Get Primary Challenge: It has been reported by the Daily Haymaker that Jim Duncan, current chairman of the Chatham County Republican Party, will seek the second congressional district seat held by Renee Ellmers, setting up an intra-party primary. Recently, the Club for Growth made some noise about finding a replacement for Ellmers. It appears they have found their candidate.

How vulnerable is Ellmers? Very. Elected in 2010 on the support of Tea Party activists, Ellmers is now seen by that group as a traitor to the cause. Her recent position, opposing the defunding of Obamacare, has drawn even more of their ire. In a low-turnout primary, Ellmers is at considerable risk for defeat.

Harris to Announce for U.S. Senate: The Venerable Reverend Mark Harris has sent an email to his vast army of supporters, conveying his intent to announce a Senate bid on October the 2nd. The grassroots have been clamoring for a true conservative who can thwart the ways of wicked Washington by defeating the vile Kay Hagan, supporter of homosexual marriage and an outspoken atheist. The candidacy of Rev. Harris is the product of a true draft movement, forged by enthusiastic supporters from every corner of the state. Those who desire a candidate with strong moral values will no doubt respond favorably to the good Reverend’s entry.

Berger Indecipherable: Lots of political observers in the state think that Berger’s recent moves indicate that he’s close to launching a Senate bid. I remain skeptical. I’ll believe Berger is running when he files a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. Until then, I think the theory articulated by Mark Binker is the most likely reason for the new activity: Berger is running ads in the Greensboro market to build support for his son’s congressional bid in the 6th district. Should Representative Coble retire, Phil Berger Jr., District Attorney of Rockingham County, will be the immediate frontrunner for his seat.

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