House District 116: Rep. Tim Moffitt (R) vs. Brian Turner (D)
The 116th District features one of the costliest and nastiest contests of the entire cycle. The district itself is based in rural-suburban Western Buncombe County, just outside Asheville. The current occupant is Representative Tim Moffitt.
Moffitt, known for his beard, is a former headhunter who founded the highly successful firm Moffitt International. He was recruited to run by the GOP and won his seat in the 2010 Tea Party wave. He was handily reelected in 2012. Throughout his tenure, Moffitt came to be known as one of the more polarizing figures in Raleigh. Conservatives like him. Liberals, especially in the Asheville area, despise him for his work on annexation and putting the water system of Asheville under the control of a local authority.
Map of North Carolina State House District 116, currently represented by Rep. Tim Moffitt (R).
This notoriety is a double-edged sword for Moffitt. On the one hand, many consider him a rising star in the party, possibly a future Speaker of the State House. On the other, it’s helped make him one of the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle, even though the district favors Republicans. There are just enough moderate voters here to make things interesting, and Moffitt’s actions seem to have rubbed them the wrong way.
That’s where Brian Turner, a businessman whose family has roots in Buncombe County, comes in. He’s the Democrat challenging Moffitt this year. Although the numbers say that he should have an uphill climb, Turner has run a competitive, and very aggressive, campaign. He’s running as a moderate Democrat with business experience who wants to reverse what he perceives as extremism in Raleigh. In addition to working at his parachute-manufacturing business, he served as vice chancellor at UNC-Asheville. Before that, he lived in New York City and was a producer at MTV, helping to produce the Video Music Awards. Among his campaign themes are education and the environment. But mostly, he’s tearing into Moffitt, repeating the typical Democratic charges that the GOP legislature cut education spending. He charges that Moffitt has raised taxes on families and that he voted to “fast-track” fracking, claims Moffitt denies.
Democrat Brian Turner
The race took a bizarre turn when Turner claimed Moffitt met him at a restaurant and offered him a state job at UNC-TV in exchange for his dropping out of the race so the incumbent could focus on a campaign for Speaker – a pretty serious charge. Moffitt and a third person at the meeting, Commissioner David King, denied the claim, saying it was all a misunderstanding, but Turner filed ethics charges anyway. Eventually, Moffitt was cleared, though it proved to be a major distraction for his campaign.
For his part, Turner has proved to be extremely adept at fundraising for a first-time candidate. Reports from October show that he’s raised about $503,000, just short of Moffitt’s $505,000. When all is said and done, this is going to be a million-dollar State House race.
Moffitt is clearly one of the most endangered incumbents. Polls taken throughout the summer found him in deep trouble, trailing by double-digits, which is surprising considering how Republican the district is. Moffitt has gone on the offense with a television ad featuring his father, seeking to tie Turner to President Obama and with spots questioning the Turner business’s hiring of illegal immigrants, contrasting it to Moffitt’s job creation “the Buncome way.” A recent ad depicts Turner as a “slick politician” who enjoys spying on people for personal gain and compares him to the NSA.
But despite unfavorable summer polling and general discontent with the Republican legislature, it’s possible reports of Moffitt’s demise have been exaggerated. This is still a Republican district, and in a midterm environment Turner is going to have to put out all the stops to vanquish the incumbent. The question is whether or not Moffitt’s unpopularity proves more decisive than the district’s partisan statistics and the national environment. Thus, this is a race with striking parallels to the U.S. Senate contest.
A recent poll by the Civitas Institute, in contrast to some of the polling taken last summer, shows Moffitt with a 1-point lead. But that’s a statistical tie, and early voting from Buncombe County looks strong for Democrats. This is one of the few General Assembly races really worth paying attention to on Election Night, and it will probably be a close one. But a comfortable margin in the end for either Turner or Moffitt should not surprise anyone.
Counties in district: Buncombe (part)
District Rating: Pure Toss-Up
2012 Result
56.3% Moffitt (R)
43.7% Whilden (D)
Voter Registration
35.6% Democratic
33.7% Republican
30.3% Unaffiliated
92.5% White
3.0% Black
1.9% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
55.1% Romney
43.6% Obama
2012 Governor
57.6% McCrory
39.4% Dalton
2010 Senate
59.1% Burr
38.4% Marshall
2008 Senate
48.1% Hagan
47.9% Dole
Social Media Support
Rep. Tim Moffitt – 2,293
Brian Turner – 957
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Both Brian Turner and John Ager benefited from “independent” political ads attacking Tim Moffitt, Nathan Ramsey, and Michelle Presnell. First, it was the ads criticizing them over fracking (which by the way is not going to happen in WNC due to geology). Then it was over coal ash. While the ads may officially been run by the League of Conservation Voters, the NRDC, or some other made up group, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that the funding came from the Democrat’s version of the Koch Brothers – Tom Steyer.
The first ad ran as early as May and then into the summer. The groundwork was being laid to take down the three by going negative. They only lost on the Michelle Presnell race.
As to those above who comment approvingly about Buncombe County having an all Democrat delegation in the General Assembly, you are fools. Do you really think that the rest of the Republican super-majority (and conservative) General Assembly is going to give one big rat’s ass about issues important to the “queer hippie Yankee liberals” in Buncombe County? The answer is a resounding no.
NCRohan, I’m not sure how much ALEC plays in the district. It sure gets the activists frothing at the mouth, but I don’t think everyday folks get it. The budget shortfall will be a huge story, but it looks like they’ve gotten away with it this cycle. There’s no doubt the NCGA has misbehaved badly from the perspective of a large part of the electorate (myself included), but I fear ALEC is just too much inside-baseball for most folks.
On the other hand, I KNOW the perception of voter suppression and anti-woman policies has boosted Democratic turnout. I saw angry crowds of middle aged white women mobilized to register voters for the NAACP, and I saw those voters coming to vote (for the first time!) early at my poll greeting station in downtown Asheville. Most of those voters were outside Moffitt’s district, sadly.
But my gut says both Moffitt and Ramsey are going down, which would make Buncombe County a Republican-free zone in the NCGA.
You don’t mention the resentment and backlash caused by Moffitt’s position on the Board of Directors of ALEC (along with Tillis), pushing their dangerous bills including voter suppression, school vouchers, privatization of public assets and repeal of renewable energy standards, taking the state down the same path as Kansas with the same policies. Poor Nathan Ramsey seemed like a decent guy but got smeared by association with Moffitt and left behind like a skid mark as Moffitt swirled the bowl.
Turner is “repeating the typical Democratic charges that the GOP legislature cut education spending” because they did, teacher pay raise notwithstanding.
Per student spending down; teacher assistantships cut; textbook and supply costs not increased substantively or at all; diversion of monies to private school vouchers and charter schools (funds that could have gone to the traditional public ed system).
And the pay raise did nothing to give an increase to our most experienced educators or to stem the tide of veteran teachers leaving the system or the state. And there are the continuing ploys by the GOP to undermine tenure/career status.
Finally, this race might be among the nastiest, but the clear winner is in that category is the Crawford-Barefoot race. And all because Barefoot has waged the dirtiest and most unethical campaign I’ve ever seen in my 64 years. Outright lying about is role in state education funding and tax reform (did you know that each is known as “The Barefoot Plan”?), about his opponent, about his sources of information on his wild claims, and personal attacks on his opponent’s spouse that are not only being criticized nationally as pure dirt, but I also hope get him sued in court post-election.
Moffitt is not widely appreciated here in Buncombe County, even among Republicans, so my Republican friends tell me. The Biltmore Forest crowd (ie, our version of old money) seems to like Turner’s deep roots here. Plus, the urban/rural split probably won’t work as well here as in some locations: the folks in the hinterlands don’t hate Asheville in general, but more often look upon it with fond bemusement. Trying to steal Asheville’s water supply has cost Moffitt support in the burbs and exurbs. Fracking is a hot button issue that Moffitt’s been hammered over again and again.
I think Moffit would need a unified base to win, since the Dem GOTV effort in Buncombe has been ferocious. And I don’t think he has it. I call it for Turner by 3.