Republican Congressman George Holding (NC-02) is clearly getting nervous. He sent out a fundraising email saying that he trails his Democratic opponent by three points. He’s not sharing his poll so it’s not clear how accurate that number is. Is it an initial head-to-head or is it a so-called informed-vote number after information is given about both candidates?
Still, it’s pretty remarkable that he would release the numbers at all. He might be trying to get his supporters more engaged or he could be telegraphing distress signals to third party groups, but he’s also giving his opponent, Linda Coleman, a huge fundraising tool. Trailing in the money race by more than a million dollars, she now has a case to make to skeptical big donors that she can win that seat. She can also put pressure on progressive third party groups to get in the game.
Most people have assumed that Holding’s money advantage in the conservative district would carry him through—and it still might. But clearly something is different this year. In suburban districts across the country the GOP is finding itself on defense in places they once considered safe.
In a lot of these areas, educated voters are abandoning the GOP under Trump. In places like suburban Wake County, they’ve never been very comfortable with the social conservativism of the Southern GOP and now the party is following a guy who has abandoned most conservative principles for economic and social populism. In polls I’ve seen this year, unaffiliated voters are breaking for Democrats even in traditionally conservative areas. If the Republican base has lackluster turnout in November, Holding’s district is exactly the type that will flip.
On a broader note, it shows how wide the Democratic playing field will be this fall. According to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have a 75% of capturing the House in November. If the wave subsides over the next eleven weeks, Republicans will be defending incumbents across the country in districts where they don’t want to be spending money.
For candidates like Mark Harris, running in NC-09, Holding’s smoke signal is bad news. The money that might bail him out will like pass him by. The GOP campaign apparatus will spend its money on candidates with the advantage of incumbency instead of trying to rescue flawed candidates who don’t fit their districts.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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