In the wake of the 2008 election, Democrats in North Carolina believed they were an ascendant party. They elected a governor, US Senator and the state voted for a Democrat for president for the first time since 1976. The increase in African-American and Hispanic voters seemed to give the party a demographic edge that would soon give them a solid majority.
It’s been downhill ever since. In 2010 and 2014, Democrats lost in national wave elections. In 2012, though, they lost despite the re-election of the president nationally and a relatively status quo election in other states. Next year will determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in the state or if they need to settle into minority party status for years to come.
North Carolina will likely have the most competitive gubernatorial race in the country. Democrat Attorney General Roy Cooper will try to wrestle the position away Pat McCrory. Cooper has long been touted as a rising star but has been reluctant to take a chance at higher office.
McCrory, for his part, will be the face of the GOP revolution. The economic environment should benefit him. Unemployment is down, consumer confidence is up and wages are finally starting rise. However, a lot of North Carolinians have found themselves in worse shape than before the recession began and the recovery has benefited the wealthy more than the middle class. Decreased funding for public schools and universities still has parents dismayed. Finally, McCrory has a history of saying things that just aren’t true and Democrats will surely remind voters of that. Still, knocking off an incumbent governor in a relatively good economy is a difficult task.
In the US Senate race, Democrats still don’t have a favorite candidate. While one will likely emerge, the bench is pretty shallow. Incumbent Republican Richard Burr raised $1 million in a single evening last week, showing off his fundraising prowess. Kay Hagan may try to run again, but she would face the same obstacles she did in 2014. She not a great candidate in the technical sense. She doesn’t inspire the base, she’s not very good with the press, she’s not a great retail politician, and she has no signature legislative accomplishments. Her biggest asset is her proven ability to raise money and name recognition. However, she needs to do some work to get her approval rating high enough to be competitive.
As for other candidates, former Charlotte mayor and current US Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx has said he won’t run against Burr. Treasurer Janet Cowell so far hasn’t made any major moves though she’s got time. Cowell is still an unknown. While she’s run statewide, she’s never raised the type of money it takes to run a top of the ticket race and, while Cowell’s been a solid state treasurer, she’s kept a relatively low profile. Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue is supposedly mulling the race. He’s got a strong resume. He served as house speaker in the early 1990s and ran for US Senate in 2002 but came up short in a primary with Erskine Bowles. However, I’m betting he stays in safe seat instead of running against a Burr. A loss would effectively end his political career.
My choice for the Senate race is UNC President Tom Ross. Ross was unceremoniously fired by the hyper-partisan UNC Board of Governors but he has said he’s not ready to end his public service. While he lacks name recognition, Ross is widely respected and has 30 years of high profile public service, including serving as President of Davidson College, executive director of the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, Administrator of the Courts and Superior Court Judge. While he’s never run for office, he has the profile and contacts to raise serious money. At a time when voters are frustrated with Congress and the legislature, Ross brings experience without the baggage of political disfunction. He also has the education experience that North Carolinians appreciate. As I’ve said before, “Run, Tom, Run.”
In down ballot council of state races, most Democrats seem prepared to run for re-election unless Cowell makes the jump to Senate. State Senator Josh Stein is preparing a bid for Attorney General and has already raised a bunch of money. He may get a primary but anybody else getting in the race will be playing catch up.
The Lt. Governor’s race looks to be a free for all. Former State Rep. Linda Coleman, the 2012 nominee, has already announce. Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey has been making noises and sending emails for months. A host of other people are considering it. I’m guessing that race is packed.
In the unknown category is rising star and state Senator Jeff Jackson (D-Mecklenburg). In his short tenure, he’s already garnered a national profile with ahis Snow Day #JustOneLegislator session on twitter this week. In the past, Jackson’s lack of experience (he was appointed to fill a seat in 2013 and just won his first election in November) would be hindrance. However, in today’s world, media savvy can translate into both support and money. He’s young enough that he has plenty of time and he can stay in the senate as long as wants. However, one more big moment and he may decide that he needs to strike while the iron is hot.
The 2016 election cycle is important for Democrats. Because of gerrymandering, they probably can’t take either house of the legislature but they may be able to win some statewide races. They need to if they want Washington to keep calling. Another bad election cycle and most prognosticators will write the state off as a GOP stronghold.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Keep on urbanizing. With the help of the last Bush administration, it has done wonders for Virginia.
Urbanizing can help in statewide elections for governor, U.S. Senator and president. It doesn’t help in elections for Congress and state legislatures, where Democrats are concentrated into fewer urban and metropolitan districts, while Republicans are more broadly distributed into a larger number of suburban, small town and rural districts. Check the results for the Virginia General Assembly and Virginia’s delegation to the U.S. House.
What you say is true, BUT,,,those statewide election victories won’t come without strong candidates…Richard Burr is going to coast to victory against whatever sacrificial lamb wins the nomination despite the fact that his popularity with the base of his own Party has never been more tepid, unless a seriously credible candidate comes forward. McCrory is more beatable IMO, but again, making sure the right candidate to run against him is crucial.
No dispute about relative strengths of Burr and McCrory. My point is that without redistricting reform that corrects the geographic bias favoring Republicans, Democrats will have no chance of winning majorities in state legislatures or the U.S. House of Representatives.
Sen. Jeff Jackson may have received some good press for chastising the Republicans on the budget. But he hasn’t distinguished himself with a redistricting proposal he’s co-sponsoring with GOP Rep. Charles Jeter. In hoping for a compromise with Senate Republicans, Jackson’s proposal gives away the store by agreeing to delay the start of reform until 2030. That’s handing the Republicans what they want on a silver platter. If they can hang onto power through 2020, the Republicans would get another full decade of gerrymandered control. Jackson has not persuaded a single Senator, Democrat or Republican, to co-sponsor his bill. Meantime, a bi-partisan redistricting reform proposal that would start in 2020 has 63 House co-sponors.
I am relatively new to NC, moving here just as the GOP took over the entire state. I cannot understand the paralysis of the NC Democratic party – there is no organization – no money – and very few candidates, apparently. WHY is that? I speak as someone appalled by what the NCGOP is serving up – and I am astonished that there is nothing in place to counter it.
I keep hearing the Democrats were corrupt – so now, apparently, the NCGOP can be as corrupt today as the Democrats were yesterday – a rather inappropriate way to initiate “reform” – but the NCGOP is smug in its desire to emulate the worst the Democrats offered while simultaneously trashing the Constitution, the environment and education all in one fell swoop.
Are there NC voters who don’t like what the NCGOP is dishing up? Sad to see they were MIA in November… Still cannot believe Thom Tillis represents us in DC.
To Someone from Main Street. I think that North Carolina has been in a coma for decades. It is really heart breaking to see the likes of Tom Tillis beat Kay Hagan. I think that the democrats do not see the need to vote and vote early and some said she is sure to win so I do not need to vote. Whatever the sickness, we need to get our collectives behinds in gear if we want a different North Carolina, A North Carolina for all of us.
Small correction on Senator Jackson. He was chosen by Democrats in the 37th in May 2014 to fill the unexpired term of Dan Clodfelter when Clodfelter was appointed Mayor of Charlotte, Not 2013.
I’d kind of like to see him remain in that seat for awhile rather than start thinking about statewide office. I believe he can do an effective job there and have a real impact. But if he decides he wants to play on a larger stage perhaps he might run against Pittenger in NC-9. A couple of cycles ago an underfunded Jennifer Roberts demonstrated that the right candidate can make the 9th competitive, With enough money and in a presidential year I think Jackson could beat Pittenger.
won’t happen- no democrat can win in South Iredell. Pittinger is challengeable in a primary-
McCrory is in the unenviable position of having to stifle his moderate instincts to avoid being humiliated by his fellow Republicans in the General Assembly. Gerrymandering puts the GOP-controlled legislature beyond McCrory’s ability to veto any of their excesses. His inability to exert any moderating influence will make McCrory look weak and ineffective against a strong Democratic opponent in a statewide election. Meantime, the governor’s legislative cohorts will be shielded inside their gerrymandered districts in 2016.
Given that the Democratic Party is far, far behind the Republicans, it would be well to build the Party, starting by capturing county commissioners, sheriffs, etc., knowing that it faces a huge impediment in redistricting. The Party needs a really new generation of new leaders who can help the small “d” Democrats as well as play the larger money game. The standard refrain of “fundraising” and magic incantation of “GOTV” periodically is not going to cut it. Nor will another rendition of OFA/Hagan OFA/etc. where the counties are shouldered aside and ignored, but told to produce person power on demand and genuflect when the folks from the big house come around. But then, let us not let democracy and the hoi polloi get in the way of winning something. And most of all, we need a generation of leaders who really understand the opposition, not burn outs convinced they have all wisdom and truth. It may happen, but there is still immense impedimenta to overcome.
James Taylor, the Winston-Salem city councilman whose wife was just elected to the Forsyth County School Board is reportedly leaning toward the Lt Governor’s race. Combine the size of Forsyth County, the NCAE, and his status being with the state’s Young Democrats he would instantly be leading candidate should he announce.
I’m for Tom Ross!