What to Watch in the Virginia Governors’ Race

by | Nov 1, 2021 | Politics | 4 comments

Seldom has one state’s gubernatorial election portended so much for the entire nation. Tomorrow marks election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and what happens when voters go to the polls will signify a great deal about where our politics are headed for the foreseeable future. North Carolina politicos should take particular heed of trends in the Commonwealth, for although the two states differ in important ways, we are, after all, neighbors, and what happens in one state often affects the other. This is a high-stakes election if ever there was one.

As we approach election day, polling shows the race to be in a statistical tie. Alarmingly for Democrats, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe finds himself on the wrong side of the ledger. FiveThirtyEight has Glenn Youngkin ahead of McAuliffe by a one-point margin, 47.8% to 46.8%. Another source of concern for Democrats should be the recent tendency of polls to understate Republican support. At least based on public opinion surveys, the Democratic Party faces an ominous night in a state that many believed had become solidly blue.

Equally concerning is that Youngkin has gained this lead by employing tactics translatable to other swing states. He has emphasized education to the exclusion of other concerns, and seems to have crafted a message on public schools that Republicans across the country could use in next year’s midterm elections. Many parents are alarmed at what they see as a growing radicalism in school curricula. Youngkin, opportunistically but with great effectiveness, has made parental discontent the central focus of his gubernatorial campaign. The message appears to be resonating.

What North Carolina Democrats in particular should pay attention to is how Youngkin’s education message plays in suburban Virginia. Loudoun County, near Dulles Airport, has traced a similar political trajectory to North Carolina’s Wake County over the last 20 years. Where George W. Bush narrowly won the county in 2004 (a year in which Wake actually went for Kerry-Edwards by less than a percentage point), Loudoun, like Wake, has begun to vote Democratic by 20-point margins. Murmurings on the ground suggest that Loudoun may be ready to vote GOP again for the first time in years, with education issues being the driving force behind this trend. If Youngkin cuts into the Democratic advantage in Loudoun County, North Carolina Dems should worry about their prospects in what has become a foundation of their statewide support.

If Youngkin threatens to countervail one political trend, observers should pay attention to whether he can propel another further along. The Republican nominee has deftly threaded the needle between staying loyal to Donald Trump and keeping enough distance from the disgraced ex-president to make himself marketable to swing voters. That pro-Trump stance could keep rural Virginia–particularly the Appalachian panhandle in the state’s southwest–revved up for the GOP. In 2018, Republican turnout held strong because of conservative anger related to Brett Kavanaugh. Youngkin may be able to prime the pump once again.

All of this may go out the window if Virginia’s partisan fundamentals win out and give Terry McAuliffe a victory. But a good politician panics before it’s necessary to panic. With the race for Virginia governor so close despite 15 years of bluing of the state’s politics, savvy Democrats should pay careful attention to what happens tomorrow night. A Youngkin victory does not mean imminent political collapse. The way various trends play out, however, will be instructive for the near future of American politics.

4 Comments

  1. Andy Stevens

    If North Carolina Democrat politicians are capable of learning anything, they should take immediate steps to disassociate themselves from their party’s own failing North Carolina Governor who has cost this state jobs, children’s educations, and precious time. Perhaps they can make amends AND show their new stripes by helping over rule the many vetoes Governor “Red Pen” Cooper has affixed his signature too.

  2. Phoenix

    Facts on the ground and nationwide where Biden only has 30% approval OF HIS OWN PARTY says other wise.

    Democrat ideas just do not work for a majority of folks in today’s world.
    and really 1/6 is something only lefties even talk about, as it had no effect on anything.

    Here is what I think. Leftist policies of Obama gave us Trump. Of course running Hillary did not help as she is hated by the majority of the country,

    COVID mitigation and ALOT of weirdness in 2020 brought us Biden. Biden barely campaigned. Not saying he stole it or anything but there was a lot of weird stuff going on.

    You’d figure that The Democrats would have learned that Obama’s policies that were not popular and to stay away from them (or at least moderate) but they didn’t they tripled down.

    Stupid, and its costing them.

    As it should for not listening

  3. cocodog

    Nate Silver is good at what he does, but he has made mistakes. I do not believe his mistakes were based on mathematical miscalculations, but a failure to measure the intangible aspects of politics. A lot of folks are not happy with the Republican inspired 1/6/21 resurrection or the latest efforts of republicans to obstruct the passage of reformed Medicare and Social Security Benefits. For the most part, a lot of republicans are not buying the notion of trickle-down economics. They know most wealthy folks are not going to reinvest their tax wind falls into creating more jobs. They are going to find ways to reduce their overhead by hiring workers who are happy to accept a lower salary and no benefits. The advantages of a disposable work force are far more appealing.

    Unfortunately, republican ideas just do not work for a majority of folks in today’s world.

    • phoenix

      Republicans win VA. If dems want to be reletice fet rid os CRT, BLM, ANTIA socailsm and communism.

      Read and follow the const. and enforce it.

      Then you will run everything

      chances of the …..0%

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