Which Democrat could win North Carolina?

by | Dec 27, 2019 | 2020 elections, Editor's Blog | 11 comments

As 2020 inches ever nearer, I’d like to look at what the presidential candidates might mean for North Carolina. We are one of the most evenly divided states in the nation. Most likely, the presidential campaign will play out heavily here. It’s not that we are the tipping point state, but Republicans probably can’t lose North Carolina and win the electoral college. That makes us a key battleground state. 

So which candidates threaten Republicans the most in North Carolina? The moderates. Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg, if his billions get him off the ground like they should, could all win the state if they become the nominee. They’re safe candidates for moderate conservatives exhausted and embarrassed by Donald Trump’s antics. In North Carolina, those voters make up the swing voters left in our polarized society. 

I think Klobuchar, both in North Carolina and nationally, matches up best with Trump. She comes across as pragmatic, disciplined and unflappable. In contrast, Trump is uninformed, flailing and thin-skinned. Her path to the nomination is narrow, though. She’ll need to win or come very close in Iowa and use that momentum to launch a national campaign. It’s a tough road but not impossible. 

Biden comes across as a safe choice. The reason his gaffes haven’t hurt him is that we all know who he is. He’s a decent, caring and empathetic man, the polar opposite of Trump. His policies are cautious and incremental at a time when a lot of Americans want a return to normal, even if that’s not really possible. At the national level, never-Trump Republicans are already gearing up to support him. Like Klobuchar, he’s a safe choice for moderate conservative swing voters in North Carolina. 

By March, we’ll know if Bloomberg’s massive ad campaign can launch him into the top-tier. The early primaries will weed out a lot of candidates and the former Mayor of New York may look attractive to people looking for a second choice. Bloomberg comes with some baggage, but being too radical isn’t part of it. He’s been a Republican, Independent and is now a Democrat. He’s not Tom Steyer who tried to turn his personal obsessions into a political campaign. He’s a serious politician who happens to also be a billionaire. He ran New York so effectively in the wake of 9/11 that they allowed him to run for a third term. Again, he’s not threatening to centrist voters and could bring broad appeal to the general election. 

I don’t think North Carolina will vote for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Both candidates staked their flags too far to the left for most of the swing voters in North Carolina. Sanders, in particular, will get savaged with his own words by the Trump campaign. He spent most of his political career bragging about being a socialist and spent time in the Soviet Union when it was even more repressive than it is today. That legacy will likely kill him in a general election campaign. 

As for Warren, she’s the victim of a self-inflicted wound. She killed the momentum she was building by getting into a protracted fight over Medicare for All. The position is a loser because in a general election it will turn into a fight about forcing people off of their health insurance plans. Like it or not, people prefer what they know to what they don’t. Warren didn’t learn the lesson from the Obama promise: “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.” Instead, Warren promises uncertainty at a time when people want certainty. Maybe Warren can win in other states and even the presidency, but I don’t believe she can win here. 

Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro and Cory Booker are also more moderate candidates. However, I don’t think Booker or Castro have the momentum to make it through the early primary states. As for Buttigieg, I’m afraid a state that voted against marriage equality by a 20 point margin just eight years ago is not ready to vote for a 37 year old gay man, especially one whose political experience is limited to serving as mayor of a town the size of High Point. 

Despite trending blue, North Carolina is still a moderately conservative state. However, swing voters here aren’t really Trumpists. They are suburban whites who want their taxes low and don’t want much government interference in their lives, but are also smart enough to see through the Trump con. They’ve leaned Republican for the past 20 years or so, but they’ll vote for a Democrat as long as that Democrat doesn’t want to upend their lives with too many ambitious policies. 

A moderate at the top of the ticket will make it easier for North Carolina Democrats down the ballot. We’re still a state of ticket-splitters so losing the presidential race here doesn’t necessarily spell doom, but winning it could turn a good year for Democrats into a great one, especially in the legislative races Democrats need to win to gain control of one chamber of the legislature.

11 Comments

  1. cocodog

    We as Democrats are looking for a candidate who has the “ability” and “integrity” to be president, coupled with the street fighting skills to stand up to a party (the Republicans) that have become a bunch of lairs, bullies and incompetents. All these traits Republicans demonstrate while waiving their bibles and claiming they are patriots.

  2. cocodog

    Assuming Biden maintains his momentum, winning the nomination who would be his best choice of a running mate. I personally would like to see Warren, she would be an outstanding candidate, but I believe you are correct in your analysis. She has done irreparable injury to her cause by doubling down on that Medicare for all business. The concept is complex and easily attacked by Republicans as being to costly and unrealistic. Although, as a practical matter, there are defenses to the Republican attack, many are currently operating effectively with Medicare. The most obvious supplemental insurance that can be provided at a lower cost by an employer or purchased by the insured through an Obama Care style cooperative.

    Senator Sherrod Brown would be an outstanding choice. His political resume shows a strong support of common-sense values. He is not offensive or uninformed. What you see is what you get. This team could take NC and several of the battle ground states.

  3. Paul Shannon

    What Ray said..

  4. Ray Warren

    Aside from being “afraid”, Mills provides no support for his statement about Buttigieg. Let’s unpack it a bit.

    First, as pollsters have unanimously noted, support for marriage equality has increased substantially over the past eight years in a manner unlike any other social issue. To say that North Carolinians would vote the same way in 2020 as they voted in 2012 is to ignore reams of competent polling data capturing that sea change in attitudes. Mills cites no polling, but it is unlikely that the views on the issue have not moved in North Carolina since 2012.

    In the 2012 vote, the (anti equality) marriage amendment was defeated in every one of the state’s cities, including the smaller ones like Wilmington and Asheville. (The surrounding counties may have voted “yes” but the urban core in every case voted “no” – and the amendment also lost in student dominated Watauga County and coastal Dare County.) In each case, the urban precincts voted “no” whether they normally voted Republican or Democrat. (For example, southeast Charlotte.) The fact that urban Republicans voted “no” does not guarantee that they will vote against Trump. But it certainly means they are open to voting for a moderate gay person.

    Much of the “yes” (anti equality) vote came from normally Democratic rural counties, many of which have substantial minority populations. As with abortion rights and other issues, minority voters have shown a willingness to vote beyond their personal social views. Assuming that minority voters will suddenly become Republicans over one social issue is not a wise guess and certainly not a certainty.

    And finally, North Carolina did just “vote for a gay man” in 2018 when it elected one to the state’s Court of Appeals. As with Mayor Buttigieg, the candidate did not emphasize his sexuality, but he did not hide it either. It was certainly out there for Republicans to use against him if they could – and it clearly was not a politically fatal condition.

    Thomas Mills is a smart man. But he did not think his comments through, and they don’t make a lot of sense.

  5. Joseph Irvin

    Somehow you managed to leave out the current 5th place candidate completely. Andrew Yang (who consistantly polls ahead of Booker, Castro, and even your personal moderate hero Klobuchar) provides something none of the other candidates do: an understanding of the future and actionable solutions to address it.

  6. Russell Becker, or I would prefer to list myself as "The Ghost of Elections Past."

    Here we go again! The “Progressives” have to apply their purity tests, and often disappear from the general elections after their far-out candidates lost primaries. Even though moderate Democrats want many of the same goals as the progressives, one had to remember that to get anything passed, one had to first be elected to office. A contributing factor to Hillary Clinton’s loss was that the old socialist didn’t throw support to the Democratic nominee soon enough.
    The main problem Hillary Clinton had was not that she was too “moderate,” but that the Clintons had 25 years of poisonous political propaganda thrown at them, and some of it stuck. One man I know who had been a fervent Democrat for years told me that he wouldn’t vote for Hillary “because of the murders.”

    I hope that this election will be different from many prior Democratic efforts. One can never underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to find some way to lose an election.

  7. Avram Friedman

    Thomas, you’re so predictable- and wrong.
    This is the same logic that led to Trump winning in 2016. Hillary was the quintessential “moderate” Democrat who couldn’t lose to Trump. Gee, lets try doing the same thing again and see if it turns out differently!
    In the real world, people are looking for change, not “normalcy.” There is nothing attractive about normalcy for people who can’t afford healthcare, are working 2 jobs for sub-standard wages, are drowning in student debt and worried about the climate crisis. Bernie Sanders is not too far left, but rather represents the Democratic Party going back to its FDR roots as the party of working people. Bernie will be Trump in a landslide and sweep in a Progressive majority in the House and Senate.

    • Todd Gunzenhauser

      It’s a bit disappointing to not even see Yang mentioned when he has the best head to head match up vs. Trump.

  8. Norma Munn

    Your analysis is probably correct, but sadly disappointing. I fear that undoing the damage from the current administration will require more than decency (Biden), unflappable conduct (Klobuchar), or a record (Bloomberg) of a reasonably successful three term NYC mayor.

    • Boyd Bennett

      I think you are right on the money. Klobuchar is top of my list right now.

      • Jonny Stockwell

        We arent looking for normalcy. We want a future that we have a stake in. We have to redifine the measures of our economy to work for us. Thats what Andrew Yangs message, conveniently omitted by you, is all about. He is very quickly becoming a top contender and polls higher than Bookers, Castro, Klobachar, and Butigege. Dont ignore him, he may help you out too!

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