Why that wave might happen

by | Feb 12, 2018 | 2018 elections, Editor's Blog | 4 comments

Last week, I wrote that the wave Democrats are expecting might not arrive. I argued that a strong economy, the recent tax cuts and normalization of Trump’s behavior could reduce the wave that seemed so apparent just a few weeks ago. However, evidence keeps building that Democrats have every reason to be optimistic.

Last week, Democrats flipped their 34th Republican-held legislative seat since Trump won. In a special election in Missouri, a Democrat won in district that Trump carried by 28 points. Along with three other GOP held districts, Democrats outperformed Hillary Clinton by an average of 32 points. According to election analysts, Democrats attracted a significant number of Trump voters in those elections.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans look like they may be in trouble in a special election for a US House seat in a district that Trump carried by 20 points. The election isn’t until March 15 and the GOP has plenty of time to recover, but the fact that it’s close is worrying GOP operatives across the country. The Democrat outraised the Republican and only trails by about three points. In response, the GOP is pouring money into the race, money they’d rather be spending next fall.

Republicans also should worry that they might be hemorrhaging support of women. Trump continues to show that he has more sympathy for accused abusers than he does their victims. He sided with Roy Moore in Alabama and now he’s defending a top staffer accused of spousal abuse by two ex-wives. Even though Rob Porter was fired, Trump reminded reporters that Porter denied the charges, just as Trump has denied the numerous allegations directed at him.

For women voters, the allegations might be getting to be too much. While Democrats demanded the resignation of Al Franken, accused sexual harassers in the GOP like Rep. Blake Farenthold get to keep their seats. The party that once demanded personal responsibility now lacks much personal accountability. With record numbers of women filing to run in response to the Women’s March and the #MeToo movement, the GOP might find itself the party of just white men.

The election year is volatile. While Republicans have a strong economy on their side, they’ve got an unpopular leader who repeatedly overshadows good news. Trump’s dismissive approach to women and the GOP’s reluctance to call him out might be driving a wedge between their party and the largest single demographic block of voters—white women.  Trump is certainly giving women a reason to either come to the polls to oppose him or stay home if they can’t support a Democrat.

4 Comments

  1. jerry williamson

    Me likee this piece better than that other piece. Maybe I’m a true believer, something dangerous to be in these strange days. But there you go!

    • Jane Maupin

      A factor that I think is missing are the numerous grass roots Indivisible members who are working to make sure no candidate runs unapposed. Also, Democrats and Unaffiliated voters will work hard against the odds to at least be heard and make certain the electorate become informed. One excellent example is the bill to delay the early grades smaller classroom mandate and to supposedly provide funds when it becomes law. This has two poison pills unrelated to education. One is to keep Governor Cooper from his rightful position of controlling the election process, and the other is related to the pipeline. ( I know that I do not have the correct language nor the details regarding the pipeline but I will have it soon in my future letter to the editors to cast light on the devious motives of this NC Republican majority)

  2. Norma Munn

    I agree with A. D. Reed that the economy is always a major factor driving a voting decision for most people. The tax legislation will temporarily put more money in a lot of pockets, but it is mostly bonus, which I think most employees would recognize as quite different from a salary increase. As for the gyrations of the stock market last week, and even to some extent today, I have heard as many explanations as excuses from a 3 year old about why he/she should not have to pick up their toys. I have some doubts that wage increases will drive inflation, since it seems there is less of it than the headlines imply. The recently created increased deficits are another matter. The US Gov will have to borrow money to cover that $3 TRILLION, and that is probably a low figure if anything in the Trump budget is actually followed. Government borrowing drives interest up and can add to an inflationary atmosphere eventually. Not right now, but it is coming and I think we will hear more and more about it.

    I would add to that the reality that most women are earning less than the male in the same job, but still are responsible for themselves and often a partner in a household with children. I think a lot of them will see through the flim flam about the tax legislation and be as alarmed by the out of control increased deficits as I am. Many of us need the various safety nets, or know those who do, and the threat of cutting Medicaid, Medicare, SS, food stamps, and other so-called “entitlements” is not going to be welcome.

    One thing I am certain of is that we can count on the Trump administration to continue with the constant chaos, attacks on the press, etc etc etc etc etc. Yes, an interesting summer.

  3. A.D. Reed

    I wouldn’t count on a “strong economy” to carry the Republicans through this fall. We’ve already seen a market correction (officially the 10% drop) that followed three roller-coaster days that didn’t quite qualify as a correction but were clearly an “adjustment”; if inflation starts pushing because of wage earners feeling they have more money from the tax cut — not that they will have much more, but they will feel as though they do — and businesses see interest rates rise more than the Yellen-planned three times this year, the eight-year Obama growth trajectory could easily start to reverse by mid-summer. Many voters make up their minds in the fall based on how they felt about the economy over the summer, so it will be interesting to see what summer brings.

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