Worst Week in Raleigh: John Wynne

by | May 30, 2015 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NCGA, NCGov, Social Issues | 5 comments

I’m giving myself worst week in Raleigh for completely bombing my prediction that McCrory would not use his veto pen on either SB2, the magistrates bill, or HB465, the “ag-gag” law. As it turned out, the governor decided to spectacularly troll me by announcing he’ll veto both of them. The announcement on SB2 came the same afternoon my post was published, while his announcement on ag-gag came yesterday. As a result, my credibility on the predictions side of things is in tatters.

So, I’m going to make a promise – no more predictions, at least when it comes to the governor. That’s because the governor is, quite frankly, unpredictable. Consciously or not, he’s applying Law of Power #17: Cultivate an Air of Unpredictability.

People who’ve watched the governor in the past expected him to sign (or not sign) these controversial bills with little fanfare. They thought (I thought) that McCrory should be taken at his word when he said he “wouldn’t sign” the magistrates bill. Instead, what he was doing was leaving himself an opening to veto it if need be – an action that he decided to take. The governor’s bold vetoes have overturned the conventional wisdom about McCrory and are a clear signal that the governor fully intends to reclaim the “moderate Pat” mantle as he gears up for what looks to be a very competitive reelection bid.

It should also serve as a warning for Democrats who think beating the governor next year will be a walk in the park. They’re also operating under the same erroneous assumption I made – that McCrory 2.0 is not all that different from McCrory 1.0. On the contrary, McCrory has grown in office since 2013. He’s become a much stronger leader and won’t kowtow to the agenda of the General Assembly if doing so will threaten his Eisenhower Republican image. As long as he keeps the social conservatives in line – still an open question at this point – then he should be a very formidable candidate, probably the favorite this early in the game.

Another error I made was that McCrory wouldn’t want to cross the agriculture industry. In fact, he already did so in one of his first vetoes, an immigration-related bill that would have made it easier to hire seasonal laborers. He was overriden by the legislature. “Ag-gag”, another bill important to agriculture, has sufficient support in the legislature for yet another override. The fate of SB2, on the other hand, is very much up in the air and could be determined by the personal views of one or two legislators. But that’s besides the point. The point is that there were strong hints that McCrory would veto both bills, and I didn’t pick up on them.

John Wynne, for completely bombing your predictions and gradually building up a reputation as a reverse-Nostradamus of the North Carolina political world, you’ve earned this week’s “Worst Week in Raleigh” award. Congrats, or something.

5 Comments

  1. Amy

    Nice portrait, Mr. Wynne. I wondered what you looked like. (Kudos and ditto to comment-writer “disgusted.”)

  2. Eilene

    I don’t think the Governor is cunning OR smart… I think his ADVISORS are finally keeping him in line so he doesn’t do anything outrageously stupid. Good job, advisors. However, still too little, too late. I had high hopes for a guy who might work across the aisle a bit, after steering the course of a liberal city for years, being reelected by those same liberals more than once… but no, it wasn’t to be.

  3. TY Thompson

    The Guv is more cunning than many give him credit for. Having said that, I would hasten to add that I am not an admirer of his. But he has been very quietly courting the veteran community in a way that pretty much no other pol in the state bothers to do. His rationale? Should he attract a primary challenger (and I’m not holding my breathe on that possibility), he’ll use this voting bloc in which he has invested so much effort in reaching out to, to readily crush any GOP challenger.

  4. larry

    McCrory….to little to late. And yes he will be defeated next year. But John you had the backbone to admit your prediction was off the mark.

  5. Apply Liberally

    Well deserved. But easily forgiven. I too had my bets on the gov continuing to whine then sign.

    He and his campaign advisors are hoping he’ll win over more centrists/moderates to his side. I see it as a smart move (did I really just say that McCrory did something “smart”? Oh my!). But let’s face it, the Religious Right and pro-business advocates would likely never vote against a conservative governor up for re-election no matter what he vetoes. So there’s really only votes in the center for the gov to gain.

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