Wow, was I wrong

by | Nov 4, 2020 | 2020 elections, Editor's Blog | 25 comments

Last night, I learned how little I understand North Carolina politics. For years, I thought I had a pretty good handle on my native state. Since 2016, though, most of my assumptions have been proven wrong. I never thought Democrats would have such bad night in this state.

Several of my assumptions about politics, and North Carolina politics in particular, no longer hold. It will take a while for me to better understand what happened, but I will certainly need to find new assumptions and data points. And I’ll have to stop believing the polls.

After 2016, the political polling industry had to take a hard look at itself and determine how it missed so much. Pollsters retooled, especially controlling for education. Clearly, it wasn’t enough. Pollsters will defend themselves by telling us that, really, they were within the margin of error. But margin of error should be much smaller with an average of polls—that’s one reason to average them—and they shouldn’t always be off favoring Democrats. I will be much more skeptical that polling errors have been fixed in the future and will certainly not rely on them as predictors like I have historically. 

For my entire career in politics, I have believed that high turnout benefited Democrats. That’s no longer true. Turnout in North Carolina was almost 75%, the highest in my lifetime, and Republicans benefitted more than Democrats. 

There were some warning signs in the early vote. African American turnout lagged white voters, but I believed that younger unaffiliated voters who would support Democrats would make up the surge voters. Younger voters may have been a large part of those new voters but they didn’t support Democrats. High turnout is a reflection of the party that is most motivated and clearly that was Republicans. 

Enthusiasm clearly is a driver of voters more than television ads. Former Reagan speechwriter and conservative columnist Peggy Noonan noted last week that Trump’s large rallies indicated that people were coming out for him. The lines in Hickory to get into the Trump event on the eve of the election made me think about her statement. 

Money matters less than pundits and consultants believe. Democrats had a staggering financial  advantage and it clearly didn’t pay off in North Carolina. Republicans added seats in the state house and won most of the Council of State seats as well as the U.S. Senate race and the presidential contest despite healthy Democratic war chests.

I think John Hood is correct that Democrats do not understand how the protests look to many swing voters. I suspect protesters could have gotten away with pulling down some Confederate monuments if Democrats had come down hard on private property destruction. Despite what progressives believe, their protests do as much to fire up the opposition as they do to rally support. People who might sympathize with the concept of Black Lives Matter resent being put into the position of choosing between the racist counter protestors or the people who make excuses for vandalism and destruction in commercial districts. 

Some things also have not changed. The exurbs are still Republican territory in North Carolina. Counties like Johnston, Franklin, Cabarrus, and Union still deliver for the GOP. That may change over time, but it’s not changing this year. 

And the top of the ticket still matters the most. Republicans came out to vote for Donald Trump. That’s what drove turnout so high. They didn’t come for Thom Tillis or Dan Forest or anybody else. They came for Trump and every Republican below him on ticket benefitted. 

Those are my initial thoughts on the election. I’m sure I’ll have more to say on the matter in the future. My biggest takeaway is that I don’t know as much as I thought I did. 

25 Comments

  1. Bruno

    I suggested here last summer that Trump at the head of the ticket in NC would help down ballot Republicans like Tillis win their races. This assertion was dismissed here by liberals suffering from TDS. It is now refreshing to see a very partisan liberal pundit admit that he was wrong and that Democrats need to reject the prevailing conventional wisdom of the left and develop a new strategy to win elections in NC.

    My suggestion, which I admit is unsolicited and gratuitous, would be to reject identify politics and angry protests and demonstrations and instead promote policies that reflect the values and ambitions of the working class. I have no doubt that this advice will be ignored (and ridiculed in some quarters), but that will merely enhance conservative politics in states like NC.

    • ronwagner1970

      What would those values and ambitions be?

      • Bruno

        Patriotism, self-reliance, individualism, adherence to legal norms, benevolence, tolerance, voluntary associations, honesty, fairness, upward mobility, morality, etc.

  2. steve

    The fact that Moe Davis lost by such a large margin in really troubling. Thom Tillis won because Cal got caught philandering stupidly. ( BUT I guess its ok if POTUS does it huh).. I am a native NC thought I might retire there, but not now not the way politics are. Reminds me of the days of Jesse Helms —which is why I moved after college in the 70’s. Back to the future. BTW—-any bets on Mark Meadows running for Burr’s seat in the Senate? I Guarantee it!

  3. j bengel

    I remember the feeling I had in 2016 on the bloody morning after, and while I’m still cautiously hopeful that some of the late arriving results may salvage a few things, the one fact that confounds me is how ANYBODY above the age of reason could have looked back at the last 4 years and said, “Yep! I want some more of that!” it simply beggars the imagination that half the population of the state is that slack jawed. Or perhaps simply that easily terrified.

    It also occurs to me that the people who were so easily led by fear of “the left” (gasp!) which is, by and large, a hypothetical are the very same people who consider reasonable precautions to contain a virus that has in a very NOT hypothetical way killed over 230,000 Americans in the space of 8 months to be the act of cowering bedwetters.

    And while the press has begun to have its collective testes drop, they are still, wittingly or not, accomplices before and after the fact. The false equivalencies of the first quintile of this century border on the absurd. They treat the reporting of news as a zero sum game; for each mark against one side, there must be a countervailing mark against the other to balance the books. But “both sides” do not conspire to shrink the franchise by whatever means available (legal or otherwise). “Both sides” don’t gun down unarmed citizens under color of law, then claim self defense. “Both sides” don’t blockade a legally advanced Supreme Court nominee for nine months because the election is coming up, and “the people should decide”, then in the next two consecutive y led railroad a nominee through with only weeks — or even days — remaining before votes were counted, saying that “the people had already spoken” — which was the point we made 4 years ago. “Both sides” don’t run campaign buses off the road, or tear gas children who accompany their parents to the polls to observe democracy in action. “Both sides” are not actively engaged in an attempt to return America to the Jim Crow era. And only one side is still trying to relitigate the Civil War.

    We may yet see the late breaking canvasses turn up a few new wins. And if we’re extraordinarily fortunate, Mitch McConnell will drop dead before January. But in a way, there could yet be a silver lining in this. With the trend suggesting that Trump may come up short, the wins that the GOP scored downballot may be sufficient for them to not want too much scrutiny on this election. Who knows what might turn up. If we have to go back and do an extensive recount? And with a bare majority in the Senate, the party might feel safe enough jettison the anvil that is Agent Orange. They may even be wondering if they wouldn’t have done better without him.

  4. Rick Gunter

    One more quick comment. Those who voted for Trump committed an unforgiveable act. I regret thinking and saying that. But it is how I feel. They didn’t vote agaoinst Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. They voted against democracy.

  5. jimbuie

    I too feel misled by polls that major media such as the NYT displayed prominently but were not accurate, predicting Biden winning by 4% in NC as of this past weekend. I was surprised that Cooper won by just 51.4% of the vote. Based on polls showing him as much as 11% ahead, I thought he would have coattails for Biden, Cunningham and state legislative candidates. He did not. Now the Republicans will be able to gerrymander districts for the next 10 years and perhaps hold their majorities in the legislature for the long-term.. One bright spot was House District 63 (Alamance County), where Ricky Hurtado defeated long-timer Steven Ross by about 400 votes. Thanks for your blog!

  6. sebbiec

    The Democratic Party needs new leadership. Our elders don’t know how to compete in today’s 24/7 media-manic battleground, and remain stuck in tactics and messaging techniques dating from the 70’s. Standing in the well of the Senate, peering over half-glasses and reading a statement no longer cuts it. Nor does wasting money on television ads.

    We also have to quit running dull candidates, and wake up to the fact that most people in America are either too stupid, misinformed or lazy to vote in their own self-interest. Nobody has the patience to decipher tax policy or health care positions. What they are drawn to is dynamic leaders, who know how to command an audience. Obama, yes. Clinton, yes. But what are we doing running such humdrum, uncharismatic candidates as Dukakis, Gore and Kerry?

    • ronwagner1970

      Yes. A huge part of this comes from just getting destroyed in the messaging war for 30 years now. And here we are, in 2020, with the face of a supposedly progressive party looking toward the future being represented by septuagenarians and octogenarians who, as you note, are basically horrible at being heard in today’s media environment.

      • oldvet70

        You got that right. The old farts need to be removed from the positions of power in the D’ party. I think I can say that because i’m 76. When Nancy Pelosi comes to a podium wearing her pearls she is telling everyone ‘”Look at me, I’m richer and more elegant that all of you.” Do you think rural voters will then like her and us Democrats?

      • oldvet70

        You got that right.

  7. Mike Leonard

    Half of the voters were excited by Trump’s appeals to white supremacy and police brutality.

  8. conchgal

    H.L. Menken’s quote came back to me this morning: “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”
    And Churchill’s, of course: “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”
    Like Rick Gunter, I was absolutely gutted this morning, and still am. Tim Alberta (American Carnage) said recently that around 40% of Americans have always been as Trump’s base is now. Jon Meachum echoed similar figures. What does that say about this country, when almost half the population are racist, misogynistic, backward looking trogladytes?

    • Rick Gunter

      Thank you.

  9. ctw

    Over the past couple of weeks I have changed the channel every time somebody started talking about polls. Polling generates a great deal of cash for people “in the industry” which includes not only the pollsters but also, fundraisers, professional campaigners, and the media. They hung on one more cycle after their methods were proven useless in 2016 to enjoy one more payday. Hopefully the lesson will be learned this time.

    As was said, it takes a lot to admit to ones errors, but I wouldn’t blame yourself too much. There is really nothing to be done when a population thinks its a good idea to elect a Madison Cawthorn.

    • ronwagner1970

      “There is really nothing to be done when a population thinks its a good idea to elect a Madison Cawthorn.” And in a landslide, against a decorated military officer. Nailed it.

      But I do believe polling as an exercise to be taken seriously is over.

  10. SuzieQue

    I am disappointed that the polls again were not reliable. I had a concern about the main stream news media swerving so hard to the left. I want the media to be objective and tell both sides of the story, whether they agree with it or not. I think the left has become too smug. I do not agree with most of the GOP policies, but policy was little mentioned in the campaign. Many people hate the way media has attacked the donald. He may deserve it, but it is not the media’s job to play that role. The county I live in has low rated schools. The school board and the county commissioners have always been GOP. They won again this year. I have no hope for our schools. It’s all about survival of the fittest, pull yourself up by your bootstraps, and work. There is a narrow-minded reactionary view of people and the world that still prevails. We have a long way to go before we can be a true Christian nation. There is so much anger and hate in our society. We can’t go back to the 50’s. Minorities cannot go back to being invisible.

  11. Robin

    What I cannot understand is how the electorate doesn’t understand that once again Gov Cooper’s hands are tied again. We will not have a budget, teachers’ pay will still be piecemealed and why oh why do we have Lt. Gov as a different party.

  12. David Econopouly

    As long as we continue to humiliate, embarrass, shame and try to suppress non-Republicans(and Republicans) who offer criticism of the Democrats without examining what they say, we will probably continue to be surprised by the election results….. If you don’t know by now that Americans have little faith or trust in establishment politicians then you haven’t been paying attention…… Yes, the Democrats can rally around their candidate and shut off dissenting views and try to force people to get in line…. but I think we’ve seen the results of that in a couple of elections(and also see what a candidate who attacks the status quo can do as Obama did in the previous 2 elections)…… If anyone thought that an establishment candidate winning against a non-establishment candidate would be a cake walk(or even possible?) then it’s no wonder they are in shock!…….

    • ronwagner1970

      Actually, Americans – most especially Republicans – seem to have complete, unquestioning faith in their politicians. How long has Mitch McConnell been a senator now? Susan Collins? Trump got even more votes. And when are “dissenting views” shut off? Fox News is the most viewed network in the world.

      I’m genuinely interested to hear, though, what your criticism of Democrats is, right now, at this moment.

  13. Rick Gunter

    This is the saddest election of my lifetime. I have the sick feeling in the depths of my stomach that I get at such moments. I have felt its since last night.
    To my credit, I did not expect a big Democratic win. I believed before the election that something fundamentally wrong has happened to this country that would enable millions of people to overlook a candidate with absolutely no character, a candidate responsible, literally responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, a candidate who locked up little children in cages, a candidate who has lied and lied thousands of times, a candidate who cheats on everything from wives to taxes. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the presidential election, our country has failed. The veneer that has us believing we are a good and decent people has been stripped away. We are as loathsome as the president we cast ballots for in 2020.
    I never before have felt such despair over an election. I fear for my country and those who call themselves Americans.

    • JGE

      Jesus, what a devastating and completely on-point comment. And it holds true even if Biden seeks out the win.

      • Phyllis D Nunn

        I honestly feel a split-up into 2 countries is the only way to save our sanity. And I am willing to move! However, their section would continue to gut the planet, so it’s just not doable if we want to try and prevent that.

  14. Richard Hren

    Takes courage to admit you have been wrong. This schizo election continues to baffle me as well. Still much to learn and potentially correct.

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