A long hot summer
Trump is the result of a backlash against a changing culture, economy, and society.
The United States is in the midst of the biggest backlash we’ve seen in decades. Resentment against immigrants is driving the narrative today, but anger at various minority groups and those seen as supporting them is fueling an attempt at reordering American society. The animus is driven by predominantly White Christian hostility to darker-skinned people and other religions, but it includes a class element that attracts working class people of color who feel left behind in an evolving society and economy.
Liberals should be prepared to find themselves on the wrong side of most Americans, even if they believe they are on the side of the angels, on deportations. People approve of Trump’s immigration actions. They believe that most immigrants need to go back to where they came from. They believe Trump is making the country safer by deporting criminals and terrorists. They will tolerate a lot of ugly behavior from ICE and the administration if they think immigrants are getting the boot.
Joe Biden’s immigration policy was a political disaster for Democrats. He ignored the demand of a majority of citizens to get a handle on the Southern border and reduce the flow of immigrants into the country. Most people won’t make much of a distinction between those who are here legally and those who aren’t. They just want a lot of them gone. Snatching people off the street, cutting off their communication with loved ones, and detaining them in unknown locations may be cruel and inhumane, but most Americans will look away, believing ICE is doing unpleasant but necessary work to rid our country of “illegals.”
Trump understands this American zeitgeist and is baiting progressives. He wants outrage and protests. He sent ICE into places where he knew he would get a reaction. He wanted protests and riots and he got them. He’ll use them as an excuse to expand his power.
Early polls show people supporting Trump’s decision to send the National Guard to LA by large margins. They won’t make much distinction between federalizing the National Guard and sending in the Marines. They’ll just see the moves as efforts to restore peace in cities plagued by burning and looting. The images of masked men standing on burning Waymos waving Mexican flags and groups of brown-skinned men burning American flags reinforces their sense that the country is being inundated by criminals from foreign countries.
I’m skeptical that protests against Trump will make much difference, even though I don’t have a better solution. The riots and protests in 2020 in the wake of George Floyd’s death probably kept the 2020 election from becoming a Democratic rout. While voters were tired of four years of Trump, they didn’t trust Democrats enough to give them the blue wave election they expected, leaving the party with narrow Congressional majorities and setting up the GOP’s takeover of the House just two years later.
Similarly, the protests on college campuses against the war in Gaza alienated more Americans than they educated. The overtly anti-American bias of some protestors got more attention than the issue they were trying to highlight. Democrats somehow managed to get lumped in with those radicals even though they were protesting Democrat Joe Biden’s policies. In the minds of too many people, the party is becoming more of a protest movement than a political party.
If the protests against ICE become violent, Trump will benefit, at least in the short term. Riots and looting will turn Americans against the protesters. Democratic mayors should take a hardline against property damage and violence while also pushing back against Trump’s incursion onto their turf.
Effective resistance will depend on non-violent actions and stories of families, not criminals, being targeted. While most American want immigration under control, they have lower tolerance for brutality, especially if they have to witness it. Turning dogs and water hoses on protesters in Alabama in the early 1960s helped change Americans’ perceptions of the Civil Rights Movement. The same might happen during this period of mass deportations.
We’re in the early stages of an attempt to divide America fueled by a backlash against the Civil Rights Movement, marriage equality, immigration, the negative impacts of trade deals, and the technological revolution. Trump is trying to normalize a heavy-handed response by the federal government. Right now, people are sympathetic, but their tolerance will eventually run out. If crack downs become too harsh or the unrest lasts too long, he may pay a political price. It’s probably going to be a long, hot summer.
Biden DID NOT ignore immigration. He put together a bill with wide bi-partisan support and tRUMP told all the republiQans to vote against it so he could continue to use it as a campaign fear-mongering issue. Those feckless republiQans are the ones who ignored the issue.
How many years have GOP controlled Congress refused to even introduce legislation... much less take a vote on it? Trump killed the closest chance America has had on bipartisan legislation that could started honest conversations.