A swing state poll

The political environment, including Trump's behavior and the economy, will probably determine the overall outcome.

Carolina Forward has a poll out this week that looks about right for North Carolina. It shows a state that’s evenly divided and probably a few points to the right of the country as a whole. Compared to national polls, the political environment here is a bit better for Republicans.

Former Governor Roy Cooper leads Trump toady Michael Whatley by five, 47%–42%, with nine percent undecided. Republicans have been self-soothing themselves with the narrative that Cooper has a ceiling below 50%, but that’s just wishful thinking. They should be more worried that Whatley and the National Republican Senate Committee have spent a fair amount of money bashing Cooper and his numbers haven’t softened a bit.

What’s more likely is that the undecideds are lower-information voters who will follow the political winds. The national political environment is still the second most powerful force in this race, behind Cooper’s name recognition and overall familiarity to the electorate. Unless Trump can reverse some of the damage he is doing and the economy picks up, Cooper will probably win at least half of those undecided voters and could easily win far more. Right now, independents break for Cooper by 29 points.

While that’s good news for Cooper, Democratic Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls has a fight on her hands. The poll shows her Republican opponent, Sarah Stevens, with a one-point lead and 16% undecided. The race is tied.

Voters have shown themselves to be evenly divided over the court. Alison Riggs edged out Jefferson Griffin by a few hundred votes. In 2020, Chief Justice Paul Newby did the same thing to incumbent Chief Justice Cheri Beasley. Both of those were presidential elections with a lot more voters than will show up in 2026.

Earls will probably have the advantage of a good political environment for Democrats, similar to the one that helped her win in 2018. She’ll also have a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket in Roy Cooper, and in 2018 there were no high-profile statewide races. She also brings incumbency, but I’m not sure that’s much of an advantage anymore.

Stevens has the advantage of a more reliable base of voters. In both 2018 and 2022, more than 58% of registered Republicans turned out. In 2018, Democrats had a 54% turnout, and in 2022 only 51% voted. Unaffiliated voters dropped slightly from 46% in 2018 to 45% in 2022. Unaffiliated voters are voting increasingly Democratic, but there are still plenty of conservative unaffiliated voters.

A lot of money will pour into the state to highlight the court race. If Democrats lose, they will have only one seat on the court and a difficult time getting a majority anytime soon. Regardless, it will be dominated by the U.S. Senate race, and it will probably be won along the margins.

The generic ballots highlight how evenly divided the state is. Both the legislative and congressional ballots split essentially evenly, even if the poll shows Democrats with a one-point advantage in the congressional race. The congressional and legislative votes will be roughly 50–50, but the congressional delegation will continue to skew artificially Republican, and the legislature will stay heavily in Republican hands due to gerrymandering.

While I think the poll overall looks reflective of the state right now, I’m a little skeptical of the GOP primary numbers. The poll shows Whatley with a 30-point lead over Don Brown and Michele Morrow. He has 36%, Brown 6%, and Morrow 4%.

Whatley is benefitting from a digital/streaming campaign by third-party groups, and he likely has a good lead, but Michele Morrow came from out of nowhere in 2024 to oust incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt in the GOP primary. Maybe she’s largely forgotten, but I suspect she will do better than this poll indicates. Primaries are notoriously hard to poll and can be far more fluid than they appear.

Overall, the poll indicates a swing state where Democrats are benefitting from a strong Senate candidate and a favorable political environment. The Supreme Court race will likely go down to the wire. If the election were held today, I suspect the undecided voters across the state would break for Democrats. How much that changes probably depends on Trump and the economy.