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Early numbers don't look good for Berger right now.

Senate President Pro-tem Phil Berger’s primary election is not looking great for him. The early vote numbers indicate a highly motivated Rockingham County and less motivated Guilford County. Berger’s path to victory is winning Guilford County by a larger margin than he loses Rockingham to Sheriff Sam Page. He’ll need to see a large Election Day turnout to pull that off.

As of this morning, the John Locke Foundation’s vote tracker shows 2,936 Republican ballots have been cast. Almost 75% of them come from Rockingham County. Unless something changes over the next week or Guilford shows up big on March 3, those are tough numbers to overcome.

There’s a lot going on in that primary and a lot of lessons to be learned. Sheriffs in rural North Carolina often hold an unusual sway over the counties they represent. Politicians can overstay their welcome, even very powerful ones. And, of course, all politics are local.

Sheriff’s races in North Carolina have long generated more interest, especially in rural areas, than even top of the ticket races. They often led political machines, and many were legendary. Madison County Sheriff E.Y. Ponder brought attention to the mountain county for his ability to find votes. When I was a kid, R. W. Goodman essentially ran Richmond County. More recently, Sheriff Moose Butler was the most popular political leader in Cumberland County.

Back in 1998, when I was working on Eva Clayton’s primary for Congress in eastern North Carolina, I noticed Democratic primary turnout was higher in mid-term elections than presidential ones. Consultants out of Washington kept telling me that I had to be wrong. I kept digging and figured out that sheriff’s primaries were the common thread. People were more inspired to vote for a local law enforcement official than a governor or president.

Sheriffs are usually the only person in a county that is elected countywide and not part of a board or commission. They also have patronage, hiring dozens of staff who are visible throughout the rural communities and in the courthouse, often a central gathering place. Bring a big personality to the job and you have the makings of a political boss. Sam Page has that vibe.

Berger has outstayed his welcome. He’s been in the legislature for more than 25 years. While he’s attained an almost unfathomable amount of power and influence, Rockingham County really hasn’t seen life improve that dramatically, or at least not enough for most people to notice. Berger may not be at fault, but he still gets the blame. People just want a change.

And of course, all politics is local. Berger’s whole family is woven into the fabric of the Rockingham and North Carolina political establishments. One son is on the Supreme Court. The other is a Rockingham County commissioner. There’s an underlying sentiment that the family has too much power and the people have not gotten a good enough return.

A misguided attempt to locate a casino in Rockingham County reinforced the negative feelings. Berger may have thought he was bringing an economic development opportunity to his home county, but that’s not how many people saw it. Instead, they saw a shady industry moving into their county that would bring other unsavory businesses to the county. They also suspected some sort of corruption with political cronies trying to score a land deal.

The combination of factors leaves the most powerful Republican in the state facing a perfect storm. In a low-turnout election with a well-informed electorate, all the money in the world can’t move enough voters. Everybody in Rockingham County knows both candidates and their minds are made up. They can’t be educated by ads because they are informed by their neighbors and communities.

In Guilford, where Berger needs to win, he might be able to persuade people to vote against Page, but negative campaigning dampens turnout. Ads alone aren’t powerful enough to drive people to go to the polls to vote against someone. So Berger is stuck. He’s not exciting enough to motivate voters and his negative attacks may keep Page from gaining support but they will also suppress the voters he needs in the polls.

Berger might still win. Maybe Rockingham is going to be much closer than I suspect. Maybe he’s going to crush Page in Guilford and the turnout increases. Politics is full of surprises that render conventional wisdom obsolete, but if I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Sam Page right now.