And the race is on

It's Cooper v. Whatley for US Senate in North Carolina.

After months of speculation, the battle lines are drawn in the race for the North Carolina Senate seat. Democrats have been waiting to hear from former Governor Roy Cooper and he’s set to announce his candidacy next week. On the Republican side, incumbent Senator Thom Tillis’s retirement left a void. Yesterday, National Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley jumped into the race with the full backing of the Epstein machine.

Both sides have primaries to clean up. On the Democratic side, I expect former Congressman Wiley Nickel will bow out. Both the party leadership and the rank-and-file have been hoping that Cooper would get in. One or two people will probably file to run in the primary, but most people will never know they were on the ballot.

Whatley could draw more serious competition because when your party nominates Mark Robinson and Michele Morrow everybody is serious. He’s already got one opponent though I don’t who he is. With the division within the GOP, Whatley might turnout to be too sane for the base, though he’ll try to fake it.

The two candidates couldn’t be more different. Roy Cooper comes from a tradition of public service through elected office. He’s served in the legislature and as attorney general and governor of one of the most equally divided states in the nation. He knows how to work across the aisle and understands that as a leader of the state, his obligation is to everyone, not just to people who share his world view. He couldn’t have gotten elected statewide six times, four as attorney general and two as governor, if he didn’t respect the people he serves.

Michael Whatley is a political hack by trade. He’s guy who has spent his career bashing people who disagree with him. He’s never reached across the aisle for anything. Hell, he couldn’t find the aisle to reach across it. He’s a partisan warrior and tribalist. His convictions are only as strong as the latest GOP platform. He’s not interested in bringing people together. He’s out to divide and conquer. As Senator, he would only serve Republicans in the state.

As a candidate, Cooper starts with a number of advantages. He has almost universal name recognition in North Carolina and begins the race with a positive approval rating. He was a very public governor, so people think they know him. He’s also run statewide many times. He won’t face many unfamiliar circumstances on the campaign trail. His challenge will be to keep his message focused on North Carolina and not get dragged into the muck of the national political drama.

Whatley is a first time candidate. He’s got a steep learning curve despite his vast experience working on campaigns. Political hacks often make poor or difficult candidates. They don’t understand their new role on the campaign and tend to fall back into the role of strategist, just without the necessary objectivity.

Whatley also has little name recognition, allowing Democrats to start defining him early. If they do their job, he may never see positive approval ratings, not that he can’t win even if he’s underwater. Still, he’s going to have to prove himself to North Carolinians with a thin resume outside of the partisan politics that people hate.

Whatley starts with the advantage and disadvantage of Trump’s support. Whatley is an election denier who would say anything to stay in the good graces of Trump. His fate will likely mirror the president’s popularity. He was Trump’s pick to lead the national party and Trump picked for US Senate. He can’t get away from that. He may have Trump’s endorsement, but he will also carry his baggage.

Both candidates bring strong national fundraising networks. Cooper raised money nationally both for himself and for the Democratic Governors Association. Whatley has been raising for the Trump campaign and the National Republican Party. Neither will hurt for money.

The race will be tight. The margin of victory will probably be less than three percent. Cooper is well-known and liked. He knows how to appeal to North Carolina’s fickle middle and he’ll very likely have a more favorable political environment. Whatley, in contrast, has little to offer independent voter who dislike partisan politics. He’s best known as a Trump Yes Man. If Trump is unpopular or the political environment is bad, Whatley will have difficulty separating himself from his patron.