Another poll, another dismal political environment for Republicans
The High Point University poll compares North Carolina to national responses.
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High Point University released another poll indicating the political environment is going to be tough for Republicans in 2026. The poll compares US sentiment to North Carolina feelings about the state of the nation. Overall, the state is more favorable to Trump and Republicans than the country as a whole, but that doesn’t mean the outlook is good.
The poll surveys self-identified registered voters in both the state and nation. Among North Carolinians, 45% say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat for Congress, while 42% say they are more likely to vote for the Republican. Nationally, Democrats have a nine point advantage, a percentage that reflects the generic ballot in other polls.
In a vote for US Senate, 45% of North Carolinians say they will vote Democratic while 41% say they will support the Republican. That’s more good news for Roy Cooper as he ramps up his campaign for Senate.
People are also pessimistic about the country. According to the poll, 57% of North Carolina voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction while on 36% say it’s heading in the right direction. That tracks with national sentiment which is 59% negative, 33% positive.
Surprisingly, people in North Carolina are a bit more pessimistic about their state than people in other states are about their state. In North Carolina, 45% say their state is heading in the wrong direction and 38% say it’s moving in the right direction. Nationally, that number is evenly divide 45% to 45%.
The numbers should be a warning sign to Republicans in the legislature, since Josh Stein has an exceptionally high favorability rating. According the poll, half of all North Carolinians approve of the jot he’s doing and only 21% disapprove. At a time when most voters are negative about the state and nation, those numbers would be the envy of any political leader. Voters aren’t blaming Stein for their poor perception of the state.
As for Donald Trump, he’s underwater by nine points in North Carolina. He won the state by three points a year ago. That’s a twelve point swing. Nationally, he’s down 19 points with 57% disapproving of him.
In particular, the state and nation are mad about rising prices. Only 27% of North Carolinians approve of the way Trump is dealing inflation while 60% disapprove. On the economy as a whole, a majority, 54%, disapprove of the way he’s handling it. They also disapprove of his tariff policy and the national debt. In other words, people don’t believe he has lived up to his promises about affordability and the economy.
There are some mine fields for Democrats. Half of North Carolinians approve of the way Trump is handling the border and national security in general. More people approve of his handling law enforcement than disapprove and voters are roughly split on his immigration policies.
Democrats should be very careful about letting ICE and CBP raids become defining issues of the campaign. North Carolinians diverge with the nation as a whole on crime and immigration, with our state much more favorable to Trump’s policies. That’s not to say people shouldn’t oppose abusive or unlawful tactics that are terrorizing communities, but focusing on Trump’s economic failures will yield the results Democrats need to address other problems.
As always, the HPU poll is just a snapshot in time, but it shows a stubbornly bad political environment for Republicans in North Carolina. The poll also indicates a sample that may be more favorable for Republicans than really exists in the state. The poll sample has an even split between men and women, though women generally make up a higher percentage of voters than men—and vote more Democratic. It also has a five point advantage of self-identified Republicans with 38% of respondents calling themselves Republican and 33% identifying as Democrat. That seems a little lopsided in favor of the GOP. The political environment might be even worse than the poll indicates.
Regardless, Republicans are about to enter the 2026 election cycle along a very bumpy road. They have year to make changes, but the key will be Donald Trump. The election will be a referendum on his presidency, driven largely by perceptions of the economy. He has about ten months to right the ship by bringing down prices, improving the job market, and increasing wages. If he can’t do it, then Democrats will be celebrating this time next year.
A 38-33 split between Republicans and Democrats leaves out Independents entirely. Which in my view is a mistake, since Unaffiliated voters outnumber both Republicans and Democrats statewide. So the tilt towards the GOP in the sample may be even steeper than it appears. The fact that 45% think the state is moving in the wrong direction and that Josh Stein isn’t the problem can probably be traced to the abominable response to Helene, and the fact that a year later, it’s still a train wreck out west. This will not help Michael Whatley’s case either, if Anderson and Friends can successfully tie that tin can to his tail (as he so richly deserves). What will be interesting is whether the ongoing state of affairs will also break the spell of “The legislature sucks, but my guy is okay” that explains how a legislature (and a Congress) so reviled by the public continues to retain the very people that cause the problem. If people are starting to wake up to the fact that Republicans have been running the state for the past 15 years and things didn’t get any better, so maybe it’s time to stop repeating the same experiment hoping for different results then Phil Berger’s Trump endorsement probably won’t save him or his majority. I’ve been waiting for that to dawn on people, but you can’ t push a string. They were gonna have to figure it out for themselves.
However it shakes out, 2026 is going to be a defining moment in the history of this state and this nation. Either people are going to wise up, or the whole edifice is going to come crashing down.