Campaign finance reports, border politics, and Taylor Swift delusions

An update on the week so far

There’s a lot going on this week, both in North Carolina and nationally. North Carolina finance reports are out, giving us a look at the state of primary races. In Washington, Republicans are making immigration the driving factor in the campaign. In right-wing media world, pundits are losing their minds over Taylor Swift and beau, Travis Kelce. And in the Middle East, Iran and its proxies seemed poised to start a regional war—or not.

Let’s start with the finance reports. As I reported last week, Josh Stein has raised a staggering amount of money in his campaign for governor. He’s netted $17 million so far and has $11 million cash-on-hand. His main primary opponent, former Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan, has yet to file a report, telegraphing a lackluster fundraising period. Stein’s name recognition and a modest campaign should be enough to get him through the primary without much difficulty.

On the GOP side, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has brought in an impressive $10 million so far and has $4.3 million cash-on-hand. Robinson has two viable opponents, attorney Bill Graham and State Treasure Dale Folwell. Graham hasn’t raised much but has loaned his campaign $2.4 million and pledged to spend $5 million to defeat Robinson. Folwell loaned his campaign $1 million and raised another $200,000 or so.

Graham is currently attacking Robinson but the light guv has yet to fire back in paid media. That probably means Graham’s ads aren’t moving voters, at least not yet. The election is still five weeks away so a lot can happen, but the GOP base seems pretty committed to favoring the most extreme candidates and that bodes well for Robinson.

In the Democratic primary for attorney general, Congressman Jeff Jackson raised an impressive $2 million and has $1.8 million cash-on-hand. He’s only been in the race since October. Durham District Attorney Satana DeBerry only raised $45,000 and has $30,000 cash-on-hand. That’s not enough to reach many voters in an election that will like have 500,000 of more show up across the state. Fayetteville attorney Tim Dunn has not filed a year-end report yet. Unless something very surprising happens, Jackson should secure the nomination without much trouble.

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop is unopposed and has $1.2 million in the bank. However, Bishop raised less than $500,000 from July 1 to December 31, a pretty lackluster performance for a sitting Member of Congress with no primary opposition. Still, Bishop will be formidable despite his extremist views.

In the Democratic lieutenant governor’s primary, state Senator Rachel Hunt, daughter of former Governor Jim Hunt, has raised over $400,000 and has the remnants of the Hunt machine behind her. Her main opponent, former state Senator Ben Clark, has yet to file an end-of-year report. Hunt is the clear favorite to win the primary.

On the GOP side, a slew of people are running and I’d hate to guess which ones are getting traction, but I suspect the ones with the most extreme agendas are making headway in the radicalized Republican party.

In Washington, Republican are trying to make immigration the dominant story in the presidential campaign. To draw attention to the problems at the border, they have begun impeachment hearings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Earlier efforts to impeach him have failed but now that we are in an election year, GOP House Members are falling in line. Mayorkas would be the first Cabinet secretary impeached in 150 years.

I suspect this effort will blow up in their faces much like the Biden impeachment hearings. While the GOP base will cheer them on, the rest of America will see this as the political stunt that it is. In addition, they are going to impeach Mayorkas for not protecting the border at the same time they are killing a bipartisan effort to secure the border. They will likely bring more scrutiny to their hypocrisy than to Mayorkas or his office.

Speaking of the GOP base, they’re losing their minds over the relationship between Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chief tight-end Travis Kelce. It’s both hilarious and pathetic. Right-wing commentators are pushing a conspiracy theory that Swift and Kelce are somehow a government psychological operation designed to protect Joe Biden. It’s truly bizarre and funny at the same time. I get very frustrated at times with the Democrats’ left-flank, but at least they aren’t both stupid and crazy.

Finally, as hostilities in the Middle East continue to dominate the news, a lot of pundits are speculating that the foreign affairs are going to bring Joe Biden down. I don’t believe that. Most Americans are just not that interested in what’s happening there and until we put a lot more troops on the ground, the fighting in the Middle East will be more background noise. Stories may dominate a few news cycles, but they won’t be the driving force in the campaign next fall without a major escalation.

The North Carolina primaries will continue to take shape in the coming weeks. On the Democratic side, most seemed relatively settled. On the GOP side, the governor’s primary could heat up and the lieutenant governor’s race may be a free-for-all until election day. In Washington, Republicans will continue to try to make the border the central issue in the campaign but are just as likely to see if blow up in their faces. They remind me Wiley Coyote blowing himself up over and over again.

In the conspiracy-addled minds of right-wing commentators, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have another twelve days to drive them crazy. I expect some sort of prediction about the Super Bowl that will capture the distorted imagination of Trump world, just to let them down when it doesn’t happen. They’ll then have to look for their next Pizzagate.