Cooper starts strong

A recent poll shows Whatley unknown and the political environment getting mushy for Republicans in NC.

I’m easing back into the political world after two weeks on the road, traveling through the west. Getting back to political writing can be daunting so I want to thank the Carolina Journal for providing a poll to make it a little easier. I’m also glad to see a political environment that is shifting toward Democrats and Roy Cooper in particular.

A poll more that 15 months from an election is certainly not predictive, but it can be proscriptive. It can let us know what both sides of a race need to do to reach victory. It can also give us insight into the emerging political environment that will have the greatest single impact on the outcome.

The Carolina Journal poll shows former Governor Roy Cooper starts with relatively healthy lead over Trump Yes Man Michael Whatley. Cooper leads by eight, 47-39. Cooper has largely consolidated his base, with 90% of Democrats rallying behind him. He also holds a six-point lead with independents and has a positive favorability rating of 47-40. Only 4% of the respondents say they haven’t heard of him. That’s a strong start for Cooper.

Whatley is still largely unknown. A majority of people say they’ve never heard of him. More than 20% can’t rate him favorable or unfavorable. That’s a very vulnerable place to start a race against a popular opponent with high name recognition and favorabilities.

Cooper’s base is among young people and women. There’s a yawning gender gap again, with women supporting Cooper by 16 percent and men supporting Whatley by two. Among people under 50 years old, Cooper leads by 28 points. Among voters over 50, Whatley leads by three, 45-42.

Democrats are in the position of needing to turnout their younger voters again. Historically, they are the least reliable voters. In a bright spot, though, Cooper actually leads by two among voters over 65 years old. That gives him an advantage that other Democrats haven’t had in the past.

Democrats should begin defining Whatley before he can define himself. He’s inextricably tied to Donald Trump whose popularity is fading in North Carolina. His resume outside of partisan politics is remarkably thin. And, as the GOP’s national chair, Whatley is tied to the most noxious parts of the GOP agenda like gutting Medicare and Social Security.

Republicans, for their part, need to bring down Cooper’s favorabilities. If they have a bright spot, it’s that Cooper is still below 50%. Still, they need stop him from gaining almost any support. It will be a tall order if the political environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans.

The 2026 election will likely be a referendum on Trump’s second term. So far, that’s not going great. Trump’s favorabilities are now underwater by almost three percent after being favorable by about the same rate after the November election. His policies are getting largely panned. Most people disagree with his tariffs and trade policies. Costs of goods are still causing the most stress in households followed by the cost of health care. Rising inflation and gutting Medicaid aren’t likely to help Whatley and the Republicans on these points.

Whatley starts the race in a pretty deep hole. He will probably need some breaks to catch Cooper. He needs the political environment to begin to improve for Republicans instead of continuing to deteriorate. He needs to find an issue that makes people doubt Cooper. The first he can’t control. The second can be difficult against a candidate who is largely known to voters.

We’re too far away from the 2026 midterms to know what issues will define the election. However, Roy Cooper starts the race in a strong position. He’s consolidated his base and leads among independents. He’ll need a strong turnout among younger voters and continue to break even or better among the oldest ones. Republicans’ policies on social security and Medicare could help on that front.

The one caveat is that Trump may make a move to eliminate or restrict elections. I doubt it, but his menacing moves with the military are unnerving. Republicans who at one time decried the use of federal power suddenly seem comfortable with federal troops usurping local authority and jack-booted thugs in masks snatching people off the street. They’re more loyal to the cult of Trump than they are to the Constitution or ideals that have historically defined the American Republic.