Cooper's haul and Berger's poll

Roy Cooper increases his fundraising advantage while Phil Berger tries to convince donors he can win.

Former Governor Roy Cooper raised $9.5 million in the last quarter of 2025. That’s an impressive sum for the period that includes Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Eve when donations shrink. Republican Michael Whatley announced he raised over $5 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but not enough. With Cooper leading in the polls as well as the money race, Whatley needs more resources to catch up.

The discrepancy is also significant because Whatley is already spending money in the GOP primary. His chief opponent is former Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee Michele Morrow. She won’t be able to match him in fundraising, but she has an established operation that helped her oust incumbent Superintendent Catherine Truitt in the GOP primary in 2024. Whatley will spend down much of his cash-on-hand dominating the paid media in an effort to head off any grassroots momentum Morrow might have.

It’s hard to know how much support Morrow still has. She tapped into the MAGA base with conspiracy theories and anti-establishment rhetoric two years ago. Few people on the outside saw her victory coming, but she was able to leverage the homeschool, anti-vaccine crowd still mad about the establishment’s COVID response. If that anger is still there, she might be able to motivate them to give her a shot again. That said, not many people who lose down-ballot races become the nominee in top-of-the-ticket races two years later, but we can hope.

Cooper, for his part, has raised $24 million since he got into the race. He only has token opposition and won’t need to spend any on his primary. Instead of spending down like Whatley, he’ll be building an even bigger war chest. I suspect his first major expenditure will come in the days following the March primary. Cooper’s campaign will probably bash whoever becomes the nominee to welcome them into the race.

Even if he has to spend all of his cash, Whatley, if he wins, is not going to hurt for money, at least not initially. The GOP fundraising apparatus and allied SuperPACs will prop him up after the primary because the race for control of the US Senate runs through North Carolina. Republicans won’t give it up without a fight. That said, if they can’t narrow Cooper’s lead over Whatley by September, they may shift into other states where they might able to hold the line.

If Morrow becomes the nominee, the GOP may abandon her like they did Mark Robinson. They need to protect other states to hold their majority and they know she would be a difficult candidate who probably can’t win. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats’ path to victory lies with flipping seats in Alaska, Maine, and Ohio as well as North Carolina. Democrats also have strong candidates running in the primary for Iowa’s open seat. Republicans can afford to give up North Carolina if Cooper looks dominant and the GOP nominee is weak.

In the state’s other most notable primary, a new poll says Senate President Pro-Tem Phil Berger is now leading Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page by a margin of 39%-35%. That’s essentially a tie with about 25% of the electorate undecided. It doesn’t look like the pollster pushed the leaners or, if he did, they didn’t give him the response he wanted.

I would argue that’s a bad poll for Berger. He has been in office forever. If that many people are still undecided on his leadership, they are more likely to break for Page. Another poll in mid-December had Page up by 10%. One of them is wrong. The latest poll may be an attempt to reassure nervous Berger donors.

Primary electorates are notoriously difficult to poll, especially in low-turn out elections like mid-term primaries. The voters are fickle. A small increase in people who don’t usually vote, and therefore aren’t reflected in a poll, can make a huge difference in the outcome.

A candidate like Page has a chance because he can motivate people to show up who don’t normally go to the polls. He’s an emotional choice, offering an alternative to a machine that has had too much power for too long. It’s change versus the status quo and change is almost always more exciting.

The key for Berger in this race is to win Guilford County by more than he loses Rockingham. Page’s candidacy has become a cause in Rockingham and that makes the race tough for Berger. If the excitement spills over into Guilford, he has a difficult time winning.

The March primary is precarious for Republicans this year. They could be left with an unelectable US Senate candidate and a lame duck state Senate leader. It could turn the party upside down heading into a very consequential midterm election in November.