Don't mistake a wave for a mandate

The election is going to be about Trump, not Democrats.

It’s hard to predict where the country is heading. Democrats seem to be following the path of the GOP as a split divides the far left from the center left. Democratic Socialists of America look to be ascendant, at least in northern primaries. Centrists still dominate the Southern and swing states.

The Tea Party and then Donald Trump divided the GOP. The Reagan Republicans lost control of the party after 2016 and Trump consolidated his power in 2024, leaving little room for the pragmatists in the party. Today, fealty to Trump is the single core value of the national Republican Party.

Democrats appear to be treading a similar path without the cult of personality leading it. The ideological battle is between the DSA and moderate Democrats who have led the party since Obama. Over the past few months, the left has handily won primaries in New York and Maine, making the left flank of the party dominant, at least in the Northeast.

Michigan is the next big test. DSA-aligned Abdul El-Sayed seems to have the momentum right now against US Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. Stevens has been defined as the establishment candidate while McMorrow has tried to split the difference. El-Sayed has led in most polls for the past two months or so.

In other swing states, more moderate and establishment candidates are on a roll. US Senator Jon Ossoff seems to be headed toward re-election in Georgia. He’s certainly not a member of the DSA, but he’s getting national attention and rising favorability numbers. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper is leading his Republican opponent, former RNC Chair and Trump toady Michael Whatley, by double digits in recent polls. Cooper is a former governor, so you can’t get much more establishment than that.

The left is reading the momentum as an endorsement of their agenda. Congressman Ro Khanna, who has emerged as a leading proponent of left-wing candidates, says, “Voters are supporting candidates who have the guts to stand up for Medicare for All, for ending foreign wars and standing up to corporate lobbyists.”

Maybe that’s true in primaries, but I’m dubious that most Americans think that way. The voters who determine general elections are more self-interested. They don’t support Medicare for All as much as they support health care that’s more affordable and accessible. I don’t think they care what it’s called. I doubt most of them think much about foreign wars or corporate lobbyists. They’re wondering why their grocery bills are so high, when gas prices are coming down, and whether they can afford child care.

The wave election that is building right now is a reaction against Trump, not a demand for increasing socialism. The angst among swing voters is driven by prices. People who voted for Trump based on his promise to make things more affordable feel betrayed, but I don’t think they are blaming the oligarchy. If they had $2.50 per gallon gas or could feed a family of four for $25 at McDonald’s, they wouldn’t care who was making billions of dollars.

There’s certainly an anti-establishment undercurrent, but I don’t think it’s very ideological, or at least not on the traditional left-right spectrum. It’s rooted more in fear of change. People want a return to stability, something that I’m not sure politics can provide — at least not in the short term.

The forces scaring the American people right now are big and difficult to predict. Technology, immigration, and trade have remade the country. People are scared of losing their culture. They’re scared of a changing environment. They’re scared of losing their jobs. And they don’t know what is coming next.

Groups like MAGA and DSA believe they can offer what people want, but their solutions generally just cause more disruption. Then they suffer the consequences in the next election. It’s created political whiplash.

MAGA was sure people wanted immigrants deported, but Trump’s experiment in mass deportations quickly became unpopular and kicked off his falling approval ratings. Barack Obama was elected to provide health care reform but watched reactions to the Affordable Care Act cause wave elections that killed Democrats’ Congressional majorities.

We're about to find out in November whether the country is ready for candidates like Graham Platner in Maine and El-Sayed if he’s the Michigan nominee. Even if they win, Democrats would be making a mistake believing the country has taken a hard left turn. A wave election against Trump is not the same as a mandate for Democratic Socialism.