Excellent analysis, but I don’t believe the election is going to be all that close. I see a decisive Harris victory based on the data that is out there, some of which you noted.
I understand some credible polling found that 35% of African American voters will vote on election day. As I do the math that would indicate about 400,000. So that is far beyond the 300,000 you say are needed. (Of course there may be some slippage of the proportion voting for Harris, vs Biden.)
I will not argue with you, Tom, given your greater experience in these matters. Historically, North Carolina has seldom voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections, with President Obama and a few others being notable exceptions. While we may elect a Democratic Governor and Attorney General, we are unlikely to choose a Democratic President. This dichotomy is perplexing.
There are individuals who believe that Trump will deliver an ideal world for them. However, in reality, Trump is primarily focused on advancing his own financial interests. He may sell them Bibles printed in China, but he has no intention of adhering to its religious principles. Biden has improved life for folks by lowering unemployment , improved Medicare prescription benefits and aggressively addressing inflation.
I'm 70 year old female, native Nebraskan. Independent so I check all the boxes. I can assure you that the Iowa poll is dead right.
I predicted weeks ago that Harris would win by 10+ million votes and would sweep all the battleground states. I also predicted that tester would win in Montana, Cruz and Scott would lose in Texas and Florida and now it appears Osborn will take out Fischer in Nebraska. If they are smart, Dems will put in a last minute push for kunce in Missouri.
Watch state legislative races. Those may be the sleepers
As to North Carolina, everyone loves Jeff Jackson! He's the secret weapon in your state.
We older women are showing up. We grew up in the dark ages and we are not letting tting anyone drag our daughters, granddaughters, nieces, and grandnieces back into them.
Don't assume that someone registered as a Republican is voting Republican. A lot of people in red states vote in the majority party primary so they can help elect less awful candidates. That didn't mean how they will vote in a general election.
Sharon. I totally agree with you. We have found a good number here who are voting for Kamala despite twice for Trump. I’m also holding out hope for the Independents. But, 40,000 fewer Dems voting is not uplifting. The numbers don’t reflect mail-ins. I’m hopeful that the polling means nothing. We will all know soon.
I assume a lot of people in North Carolina wanted to see how the process would work post hurricane. So voting later in a hurricane affected area/state was logical.
This is promising. I’m in Transylvania County and our Democratic Party is very strong. We’ve been canvassing, phone banking and working our tails off. Hopefully at least a few of our local candidates win, though it is tough. Nationally, hopefully we have at least a few thousand votes to contribute to Harris. I’m still nervous but hopeful.
Excellent analysis, but I don’t believe the election is going to be all that close. I see a decisive Harris victory based on the data that is out there, some of which you noted.
Appreciate your work! Thank you. I’ve been watching NC. Trump can’t win without it.
I understand some credible polling found that 35% of African American voters will vote on election day. As I do the math that would indicate about 400,000. So that is far beyond the 300,000 you say are needed. (Of course there may be some slippage of the proportion voting for Harris, vs Biden.)
Very encouraging! Thank you for your well-researched and well-thought out substack. Glad I’m subscribed!
I will not argue with you, Tom, given your greater experience in these matters. Historically, North Carolina has seldom voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections, with President Obama and a few others being notable exceptions. While we may elect a Democratic Governor and Attorney General, we are unlikely to choose a Democratic President. This dichotomy is perplexing.
There are individuals who believe that Trump will deliver an ideal world for them. However, in reality, Trump is primarily focused on advancing his own financial interests. He may sell them Bibles printed in China, but he has no intention of adhering to its religious principles. Biden has improved life for folks by lowering unemployment , improved Medicare prescription benefits and aggressively addressing inflation.
Trump may promise all these, but came up short.
Durham & Wake early turnout:
Wake: 446,129. D:170,507; R:104,745; U:186,903. Women:234,544; Men:188,539
Durham: 145,794. D:79,333; R: 13,811; U: 49,891. Women: 75,472; Men: 54,067
Above from County BOE websites
Look at the latest New York Times/Sienna poll. Harris up 3
That probably is a bit over. I am guessing a result within 1pt either way.
It will be a far greater margin for Harris. People are missing very large numbers of Harris voters.
I would agree, but heavy female vote and Trump's mouth for the past week
I'm 70 year old female, native Nebraskan. Independent so I check all the boxes. I can assure you that the Iowa poll is dead right.
I predicted weeks ago that Harris would win by 10+ million votes and would sweep all the battleground states. I also predicted that tester would win in Montana, Cruz and Scott would lose in Texas and Florida and now it appears Osborn will take out Fischer in Nebraska. If they are smart, Dems will put in a last minute push for kunce in Missouri.
Watch state legislative races. Those may be the sleepers
As to North Carolina, everyone loves Jeff Jackson! He's the secret weapon in your state.
Agree 100%.
You are a seer!!! Love your predictions. Glad you’re voting in NC!! 💙
I want your prediction to be true so badly I just cried reading it. Thank you for just typing the words 💙💙💙💙💙✨✨✨✨✨💖
We older women are showing up. We grew up in the dark ages and we are not letting tting anyone drag our daughters, granddaughters, nieces, and grandnieces back into them.
Thank you, from the bottom of my heart 💙
You did a typo. Put the year for that pollsters previous prediction as 2026. Must have meant 2016.
Democratic turnout so far is really concerning to me.
Don't assume that someone registered as a Republican is voting Republican. A lot of people in red states vote in the majority party primary so they can help elect less awful candidates. That didn't mean how they will vote in a general election.
Sharon. I totally agree with you. We have found a good number here who are voting for Kamala despite twice for Trump. I’m also holding out hope for the Independents. But, 40,000 fewer Dems voting is not uplifting. The numbers don’t reflect mail-ins. I’m hopeful that the polling means nothing. We will all know soon.
I assume a lot of people in North Carolina wanted to see how the process would work post hurricane. So voting later in a hurricane affected area/state was logical.
💕
This is promising. I’m in Transylvania County and our Democratic Party is very strong. We’ve been canvassing, phone banking and working our tails off. Hopefully at least a few of our local candidates win, though it is tough. Nationally, hopefully we have at least a few thousand votes to contribute to Harris. I’m still nervous but hopeful.