Finally, an inconsequential debate

After two debates changed the trajectory of the race, the vice presidential debate didn't change anything.

JD Vance narrowly won the forgettable two hour vice presidential debate. Tim Walz won the only two minutes that will be remembered. As far as the overall race, nothing changed last night.

I suspect the direction to both candidates from their respective campaigns was “Do no harm.” Nobody swung for the fences. Both men seemed relatively cautious in their answers. The debate itself was one of the most civil we’ve seen in recent years.

Vance won on style. He came out self-assured and measured. He seemed confident in his answers, even smug. He offered a sharp contrast to the wild-eyed guy who talks about Haitians eating cats and dogs. He even seemed likable, in a remote sort of way.

Perception matters and Vance came across as credible and knowledgable. He stayed on message, relentlessly turning questions back to Trump’s economic record or the threat of immigration. He left a favorable impression.

Walz seemed nervous and a bit erratic at the beginning of the debate. He talked too fast, trying to get in too many points in too little time. He missed opportunities to rebut some of Vance’s more egregious distortions. Over time, he settled into his more folksy personae and slowed down a bit, but never really scored any points. Until the end.

Walz didn’t win the debate itself, but he won the night because of a single punch that landed almost perfectly. He turned the focus away from traditional issues like immigration, health care, and the economy and reminded viewers of the stakes in this election. Walz told us that the only reason JD Vance was on the stage instead of Mike Pence was that Pence rebuffed Trump and certified the results of the 2020 election. Then he turned to Vance and asked, “Did he lose the 2020 election?” Vance tried to change the subject and Walz responded, “That’s a damning non-answer.”

The exchange is the only concrete moment we will remember from this debate. The rest was standard policy stuff. The Harris campaign will remind us for the next five weeks that the Trump campaign refuses to respect our democratic processes. The argument might not win over the GOP base, but it will continue to make swing voters uneasy about Trump and Vance and provides solid proof to the Democratic base that their cause is righteous.

Vance improved his image and may have insured that he has a political future regardless of the outcome of the election. He now seems heir-apparent to MAGA, a more cleaned up Donald Trump. But he didn’t deliver any memorable lines or shift the trajectory of the election.

Flash polls in the aftermath of the debate showed no clear winner. The CBS poll showed viewers preferred Vance 42-42 and CNN showed they preferred him 51-49. In other words, it was a wash.

The debate will quickly be forgotten. Nobody changed the race, so it’s not likely to shift dramatically heading into October. Trump has bowed out of a 60 Minutes interview while Harris has accepted one. There won’t be any direct contrasts between the two campaigns for the last five weeks of the election. We’re left with rallies and ads, one of which is almost certainly going to feature Vance refusing to say Trump lost in 2020.