Gallup poll shows looming problems for Trump and GOP in midterms.

Two months in and Trump is underwater.

A month ago, James Carville wrote a much-derided op-ed in the New York Times calling for Democrats to do nothing. He essentially argued that Republicans needed enough rope to hang themselves and that Democrats should stand down. He wrote, “At this rate, the Trump honeymoon will be over, best case, by Memorial Day but more likely in the next 30 days.”

Thirty days later, Trump is still standing but the administration does seem to be struggling. An average of Gallup polls taken in January, February, and March show Trump underwater, but in better shape than he was at this point during his first term. He stands at 45% approval, three points better than 2017. He’s being boosted mainly from Republicans and conservatives who are almost unanimous in their support for him.

There are big warning signs, though. While younger people’s support is six points higher than it was eight years ago, support from people over 65 years old is down six points. In the midterm election, the voters will skew dramatically older than in presidential elections. If Trump is losing his base of older voters, a lot of Republicans will find themselves struggling in 2026.

Carville’s point may prove valid. While Trump doesn’t look done by any stretch, the moves he’s making now could hurt the GOP over the coming months. Elon Musk is making a mess of Social Security and most of those problems probably weren’t reflected in that polling average.

Signalgate, the scandal that laid bare the incompetence of Trump’s national security team, will probably have some negative impact on the administration’s approval rating. Our allies are distancing themselves from the United States. The relationship we’ve had with Canada and Western European counties is severely damaged. They do not see us a trustworthy partner anymore.

Anecdotally, my daughter says they’ve pulled the American section from the shelves of her local grocery store in Sweden. People are boycotting American goods. Trump and his administration don’t seem to understand how deeply the animosity with Russia runs in countries that have put up with the Kremlin’s bullying ways for centuries. If we are pro-Putin, then much of Northern Europe is anti-America.

Canadians are responding similarly because of Trump’s threats to invade or annex them. I have to imagine the sentiment is shared in Denmark as well. People are cancelling their trips to the states. Contrary to what the Trump people are telling us, we are not more respected in the world. We are on our way to being loathed.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs have yet to take effect, but they are going to be painful. Trump threatened auto manufacturers not to raise their prices, “leaving some of them rattled.” Prices will go up or stocks will go down. Either way, we’re going to pay the price.

Trump’s attacks on immigrants may please his anti-immigrant base but it’s shocking a lot of Americans. His plane load of Venezuelan gang members included a bunch of people who were just here seeking asylum from a brutal regime. Videos of undercover ICE agents snatching foreign students off the street who are here legally smacks of a police state. Those incidents might not significantly hurt Trump’s popularity, but they certainly raise alarms for people who believe in civil liberties.

Republicans are clearly getting nervous and we’re just two month into the new administration. Democrats won a Trump +15 state legislative seat in Pennsylvania this week. Down in Florida, the special election to replace Mike Waltz of Signalgate fame is too close for Republican comfort. A poll shows Democrat Josh Weil leading Republican Randy Fine in an R+30 district. Yesterday, Trump pulled New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination for Ambassador to the United Nations because the GOP is worried about holding her seat in a special election.

Whether by design or not, Democrats have followed Carville’s advice. While they’ve done a good job of keeping town hall meetings full and phone lines lit up, the opposition to the GOP has been relatively quiet. Now, the results of appointing incompetent Cabinet secretaries and releasing a ketamine-fueled billionaire onto federal agencies are coming clear. In politics, actions have consequences and they are starting to play out for Republicans.

Democrats should continue to organize, protest, and build operations. They shouldn’t overshadow the looming Republican disasters. Expect a steady stream of scandals from the administration and chaos from Congressional Republicans as they argue how over how to contain the mess. Strike when the iron is hot, as the old saying goes, and follow the advice of Sun Tzu to never interfere with your enemy when he is destroying himself.