History in North Carolina should temper expectations

It will be a good year for Democrats, but a historical GOP turnout advantage in the state could keep it from being great.

Earlier this week, a somewhat prominent social media account posted on Twitter that Roy Cooper would win by double digits. I think Cooper is the favorite in the race, but that type of exuberance is absurd. North Carolina is a 50-50 state. Five points here is a shellacking unless your opponent is Mark Robinson.

I’m still a bit skeptical that the year is going to be as good for Democrats as it looks right now. I’ve been snake-bit too many times. Elections tend to get closer when swing voters start tuning in sometime between Labor Day and the early voting period. Occasionally, like in 2014, the gap widens, but usually the disgruntled Democrats or Republicans who have been griping about their party all summer come home.

There’s some evidence that this year could be different. Gas prices are going in the wrong direction, the war in Iran seems poised to continue for the foreseeable future, groceries cost too much, and Trump is deeply unpopular. There’s not a lot for the GOP base to either rally around or blame on liberals since Republicans control everything. In 2014, Ebola and ISIS scared Americans and they blamed Obama and the Democrats, turning a good GOP year into a great one.

That’s why, as I wrote earlier, Republicans are doing all they can to juice the base. They’re trying to scare their voters to the polls. The ads they are running against Cooper are more than just misleading — they are flat-out lies. They are trying to engage disaffected Republicans by giving them something to fear, even if it’s just made up.

The effort feels desperate. Making such audacious claims this early shows that Republicans believe the Senate race is slipping away. Normally, campaigns make these types of dubious accusations in the final stretch when there’s little time for a response or for voters to check their outrage. Running those types of ads this early gives Democrats and the media too much time to debunk them, but Whatley needs to engage his base now before it’s too late.

While Republicans in North Carolina might be panicking, they have a natural advantage in turnout. Their base is older and more reliable. Even in 2018, when Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the legislature, Republican turnout was about four percent higher than Democratic turnout, 58% to 54%. Swing voters broke for Democrats, but the more engaged GOP base prevented the election from becoming a real wave.

The real story was age. Voters over 40 years old turned out at around 65% while voters 40 and under turned out at only about 35%. Younger voters needed to show up to make it a truly transformative election.

In 2022, Biden’s midterm, Republican turnout stayed about the same at 58% while Democratic turnout dropped to 51%. For Democrats to have a really big year in 2026, they will probably need to match Republican turnout to go along with their advantage with swing voters, who will almost certainly break for Democrats this year. That’s the formula for winning the Supreme Court race, picking up Congressional seats, and taking control of the state House.

I’m optimistic about Roy Cooper’s chances. I don’t think Republican lies can offset the effects of the wave heading our way. I feel good about the chances of breaking the veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the legislature and I’m optimistic about Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls holding her seat. I’m also bullish on Congressional races, especially Don Davis in NC-01 and Jamie Ager in NC-11.

However, I’m not buying a double-digit win by Cooper. A five-point victory would be a blowout and would probably have coattails. For that to occur, we’ll probably need to see record high turnout for midterms among people under 40 and depressed turnout among older white voters. It could happen, but it’s too early to tell and we probably won’t know until the votes are counted.