How reverse coattails might work in NC
The GOP's unpopular statewide candidates could give reluctant voters a reason to vote.
There’s been a lot of noise about “reverse coattails” in the 2024 election in North Carolina. I’ve written about it myself. The theory suggests that support for Democratic candidates down-ballot could help Joe Biden win North Carolina. Usually, the top-of-the-ticket race has more influence on the races below it than vice-versa, but 2024 has an unusual cast of characters on the ballot here that could turn that upside down.
In particular, Mark Robinson is garnering national attention for all of the wrong reasons. A Washington Post article this week highlights Robinson’s misogyny. The state’s lieutenant governor repeatedly defended men accused of abusing women. He defended Harvey Weinstein whose serial sexual assaults launched the #MeToo movement. He repeatedly mocked women who were victims of domestic and sexual assault and implied that some deserved their mistreatment. He’s giving Democrats a lot of ammunition to drive a wedge between women and Robinson.
Republicans have also nominated other extremists for statewide office. Michele Morrow, the GOP nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction, suggested executing Democrats on national TV. She’s called public schools indoctrination centers and has no experience working in public education. Almost all of the Council of State candidates have taken positions that would further restrict abortion and now Republicans are going after fertility treatments.
Reverse coattails come into play when they make voters who are otherwise likely to sit out the election show up to vote for state races. They may not change many votes, but they can help solve Democrats’ turnout problems, especially among younger voters. Women worried about abortion policies and young mothers concerned about schools might come out to vote against people like Robinson and Morrow even if they are unexcited about Biden. If they make the effort to go to the polls, they are likely to vote for Biden even if they are holding their noses.
The Wall Street Journal highlighted the Biden campaigns’ effort in North Carolina this morning. The article points out that even though Roy Cooper won the state, Trump won, too, in both 2016 and 2020. However, the margin narrowed over those four years and Robinson is far more controversial than either of Cooper’s opponents. Democratic pollster Geoff Garin told the WSJ, “I think that Biden and Stein are going to lift each other up in this race in different ways and with different groups of voters.”
The real takeaway here is that North Carolina remains the most competitive state in the nation. While Biden is unpopular here, so are Republicans running in statewide races. Robinson’s repulsive comments could motivate members of Democrats’ fickle base to show up and vote. The party just needs to make sure they don’t skip the first race on the ticket. That’s how reverse coattails could work.
Absolutely right. Democrats can be drawn to the polls to vote against the extreme GOP candidates. One way to make that happen is for each of us — person-to person because friends and neighbors are usually more trusted than candidates and their campaigns — to talk truth to potential voters. Tell them about the Democrats’ long record of accomplishments and how at risk those accomplishments and people’s freedoms are if GOP extremists win in November.
Anyone wanting brief list of ways Democrats have been better than Republicans ought to read Hopium Chronicals, also in Substack.
Thanks for this piece. I'd like to see everyone focus more on the AG's race and Dan Bishop's extremism, as well. Lots out there on Robinson and Morrow, not enough yet on Bishop vs Jackson.