In North Carolina, you can stop watching the polls now

The presidential race is tied and not much is likely to change between now and Election Day.

We’re six weeks from the election. If you are in North Carolina, you can stop watching the polls. The race is tied and it will remain so until we know the result. You might see a poll that says Harris is up by two or one that says Trump leads by three. In fact, you’re likely to see both between now and November 5. They don’t matter. For all practical purposes, the race is a dead heat and will be determined by who turns out to vote.

The baseline for the 2024 election is the 2020 election, which Donald Trump won by a little less than 75,000 votes. Not a whole lot has changed in those four years. The population has grown, the electorate has gotten slightly less white, and there are fewer registered Democrats than there were back then. If the turnout looks like it did in 2020, Trump is still the favorite.

The path to a Harris victory is clear, but hard. She needs to change the makeup of the electorate to make it more favorable to her. In 2020, voters over 65 years old made up 24 percent of the voters and turned out at an astounding 84%. White voters turned out at 79%, making up 67% of the electorate even though they were only 64% of the total registered voters.

The Democratic base was depressed in 2020. Only 68% of Black voters cast a ballot, making up less than 19% of the overall electorate, the lowest share since before Obama’s 2008 election. Just 60% of voters under 26 years showed up in 2020. Only 65% of voters aged 26-40 voted.

Trump probably can’t improve his chances much. The turnout was about as good as a Republican candidate could get in a presidential election. He doesn’t have much room for growth among his base since turnout among older, white voters was higher than it’s ever been by a wide margin. And it’s not likely that the Democratic base of younger voters and African Americans shrinks much this year.

Harris, on the other hand, has a lot of room for growth. Black turnout was more than 73% when Obama ran in 2008. Among voters 18-25, turnout was four percent higher in 2008 than 2020. Of voters 26-40 years old, turnout was only 65% both years. In addition, there are close to 100,000 more Hispanic voters now than four years ago. Bringing turnout among younger and browner voters to Obama levels would make the race close to even.

By themselves, there aren’t enough swing voters in the state to sway the election one way or the other. At this point in the cycle, very few voters are undecided in this polarized state. However, Harris needs those few undecideds to break her way to win the state—hence, the proliferation of advertising across mediums.

The recipe for winning North Carolina is pretty straightforward. On the communications/persuasion side, the Harris campaign needs to win the few swing voters in the state. They need to increase their margin among women voters by a few points above the 2020 margin, a task helped tremendously by the Dobbs decision and Mark Robinson’s pledges to end abortion. That’s the job of ad makers and media buyers.

On the field side, Democrats need to increase Black turnout by at least five percent over 2020. They need to push out more than 65% of voters under 40 years old, especially women. They need to make sure the Hispanic vote is at least 60% and hopefully higher. That’s the work of the ground campaign carried out by a combination of paid and volunteer staff.

None of those variables is going to change much between now and November 5, no matter what the polls might say. So instead of sweating over some poll that shows Trump up by three—it’s coming—get on the phone, go knock doors, write post cards, reach out to your local party to find out what you can do to move the ball forward. Focus on what you can do, not what you can’t change and you certainly can’t change poll numbers.