Is the Trump recession already here?

The economy shrunk last quarter because of Trump's tariff policies.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that the economy shrunk by .3% last quarter despite economists expectations that it would grow by .4%. Only 62,000 new jobs were created, much less than the 145,000 expected. Consumer spending dropped from 4% to 1.8%. Core inflation is up 3.5%, leading to fears of stagflation. Most of the bad economic news was driven by Trump’s tariff policies. If the second quarter follows suit, we’re already in recession.

All Trump had to do was leave things alone. The economy was strong and growing. Inflation was largely in check. His trade fears are mostly imaginary. He was elected to bring prices down and reduce immigration. But he couldn’t help himself.

Trump’s first hundred days have been chaotic. They’ve been a mix of show and real policy shifts. His on-again-off-again tariff policies have created uncertainty in the business world and his high tariffs on China are going to lead to empty shelves and higher prices. Government agencies are really gutted, but they haven’t saved taxpayers any money. The border really is mostly shutdown, but deportations have not substantially increased. Despite threats, he hasn’t abandoned Ukraine, but he has lost the trust of our European allies and empowered Putin. He’s not really invading Canada, but has destroyed a century-long partnership that was beneficial to both countries. Bluster, lies, idle threats, and ignorance have destabilized our economy and our alliances and left us weaker than before.

The public is taking notice. A series of polls and focus groups show a country already losing patience with Trump. His favorability rating has plummeted and now sits in the low forties. His handling of almost every issue, including immigration, is underwater. He was elected to fix the economy and instead broke it.

Republicans, for their part, seem to be whistling past the grave yard. They’re cheering Trump’s actions, claiming tariffs are going to eventually kick off rapid economic growth. They like seeing ICE put people in handcuffs and sending them to camps or prisons in other countries. If a brown-skinned citizen or three gets caught up in a sweep, that’s the cost of getting illegals out of our country. It’s not like they’re deporting white people.

As usual, the economy will probably drive most public opinion of Trump. He might get away with shenanigans like ignoring due process and grifting if the economy was growing, jobs were plentiful, wages were rising, and prices were falling, but they aren’t. In fact, it’s probably going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Earlier this week, the Port of Seattle had no international cargo ships. The Port of Los Angeles announced that they expected 20% fewer ships arriving this month. Shelves are going to be empty and prices are going to increase by early summer. Layoffs are already beginning and they will pick up as goods and parts become more scarce. The summer tourist season is going to take a huge hit as European and Canadians avoid coming to the United States. Soy beans and other crops will rot in the fields or warehouses as Chinese markets dry up.

So how long do those Republicans who are up for election in 2026 stick with Trump? People like Thom Tillis know that what he’s done is damaging to our country and our economy but they won’t criticize him. They are too worried about primaries from the MAGA ranks.

People who supported Trump in 2024 are starting to sour on him. Focus groups tell researchers that they expected Trump to improve the economy. They didn’t expect higher prices due to tariffs. While brutal deportations might excite MAGA, they don’t hold the attention of people who wanted to see prices go down. A recession that results in lost jobs and wages will stick to the people who stick to Trump. At some point, those Republicans are going to need to put a little daylight between the president and themselves. They probably ought to start now.