More grift and gaslighting
Expect Trump and his friends to benefit most from the invasion. Expect MAGA to fall in line.
Since Trump kicked off the New Year by invading Venezuela, it’s hard not to talk about national news. The invasion comes after months of saber-rattling in the form of blowing up alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean. The real tell, though, was seizing oil tankers. It’s about the oil. It’s about other natural resources. It’s about the coast. It’s about the billionaires. Within a day of the invasion, a group of investors announced a planned trip to the country in March.
Trump claims that Venezuela “stole” its own oil from the United States. That’s rubbish. Venezuela has controlled most of its oil production since the mid-1970s. Trump’s looking to return to the days of US companies exploiting the natural resources of countries in the western hemisphere. I expect Cuba will be next. It’s Back to the Future where Trump rewrites the script.
Trump and company declaring victory has the ring of George Bush’s famous “Mission Accomplished” speech just before Iraq devolved into chaos. Maybe Venezuela will hold it together, but that seems to mean that the same people who have been running the country will stay in power. To quote the Who, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”
If the country experiences a real regime change, it will likely be ugly. There are a lot of scores to settle. Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez ruled with widespread use of armed paramilitary gangs to keep the opposition in line. They’re unlikely give up peacefully and friends and relatives of the people they beat and killed are unlikely to forgive them easily.
I suspect Trump and company believe they can make a deal with the same corrupt leaders that surrounded Maduro. Trump clearly has no problem with corruption. He just wants his cut. I see a Trump Venezuela resort in our future if the country doesn’t become a failed state first.
The invasion is the epitome of true Trumpism. It’s all about the grift and gaslighting. The beneficiaries are the elite, the same people he’s protecting by obscuring the Epstein files, who believe they will make bank from a new regime. Trump and his administration still haven’t outlined any sort of national interest to justify the invasion.
The rationale for the operation is bogus, whether drug trafficking or corruption or socialism or whatever, but the base will fall inline. MAGA has spent years arguing to end foreign wars and foreign excursions, labeling Trump opponents as war mongers just for supporting embattled countries. Trump is making chumps of them again because he knows their only core value is him.
Right now, we don’t know what’s going to happen in Venezuela. If there’s a smooth transition of power, then power probably hasn’t really transferred. The country just has a new dictator with Trump’s blessing and Trump’s cut. If a true transition takes place, expect a significant period of instability. If that happens, expect them just to take the oil.
Change won't come, not for the better.
We have no boots on the ground, no control over the state, and no control of the government. The Venezuelan military at 400k strong remains in place and his deputy has been sworn in as president. There has been no change of government, and there won't be absent a deadly bloody invasion that will make Afghanistan seem tame.
Trump's decision to launch this was impulsive yes. Based upon the presser that followed and Rubio's shifting narrative I am 100% certain that they had a plan to get Maduro but no consistent plan for what comes next. Even Rumsfeld knew you needed a plan, even if his was a failure. Whether it was personal, or about Drugs or about China (see https://substack.com/home/post/p-183330343) is up for debate. I suspect it was all of the above plus a distraction from Epstien.
We shouldn't expect anything to really change because real change is hard and would require competence, investment, and coherence that Trump does not have. If anything we should only expect him to take this hubris and go after Cuba and Greenland.
That said I absolutely agree that MAGA will fall in line. The supposed moralists brushed aside the Access Hollywood tape, the Anti-War Trump Voters will brush aside this.
What’s your thoughts on Don Davis siding with the R’s on Venezuela? I’ve not been happy with several of his votes this being one. I know he votes mostly along party consensus lines, but really some of his choices make me pull back on working to get him re-elected.