NC House rankings

The Civitas Partisan Index gives a clear picture of competitive state legislative races.

Anybody interested in state legislative races needs to look at the Civitas Partisan Index. It ranks races on their competitiveness, giving a baseline for every legislative election in the state. Yes, Civitas is part of the conservative John Locke Foundation, but the scale is straightforward and accurate.

First, a bit about how it works. The index averages the results of nine council of state races in 2024 to determine the Republican vote in North Carolina. The index excluded the governor’s race because Mark Robinson. The Republican average is 50.83.

The index ranks each district by how much more Democratic or Republican it is than the state as a whole. As Dr. Andy Jackson of Civitas explains, “For example, if a district has an average Republican vote of 48.54 percent, it will have a CPI of D+2 (48.54 – 50.83 = -2.29, rounded to -2) and be rated lean Democratic. That means the district is about two percentage points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than is the state as a whole.”

The index ranks races as toss-up, lean Democrat or Republican, likely Democrat or Republican, or safe Democrat or Republican. According to Jackson, safe seats, those ranked R or D +10 or more, are essentially impossible for to flip. Likely seats are very unlikely to flip, but could with the right candidate, an extreme political environment, or a debilitating scandal.

Jackson says that for Democrats to flip the house chamber, “They must win all of their safe, likely, and lean districts, as well as the seven toss-up districts, and seven of the 15 lean Republican districts.” It’s a tall order, but the political environment is likely to heavily favor Democrats. In 2018, the best year for Democrats in the Trump era, Democrats won six of nine toss-ups, five lean Republican seats, and one likely Republican district.

I think the political environment in 2018 swung about three or four points towards the Democrats. Democratic base voters came out in larger numbers and swing voters broke toward Democrats. Republicans did not see a significant drop in turnout compared to other midterms. Had they stayed home, the wave would have been even larger.

In 2026, Democrats could see an even better year. The US Senate race will draw people to the polls. Roy Cooper will be a strong candidate who could have coattails and a machine to motivate less frequent Democratic voters. In contrast, Michael Whatley is having difficulty catching fire with Republicans and faces a primary challenge. We’ll see if he gain more steam after the March primary.

The Republican base is splintering with MAGA influencers fighting and struggling to get on the same conspiracy. Trump is alienating more people with his unhinged rhetoric. Blowing up boats is turning out to be less popular than he expected and people really don’t want masked, armed men in camouflage snatching people off their streets.

Against that backdrop, health care costs and rising prices will dominate the conversation. Republicans have so far failed to extend the ACA tax credits and we’ll likely see dramatic spikes in premiums for millions of Americans. Prices on staples like groceries and clothing are still going up. Instead of addressing the problems, Trump is calling affordability a hoax. Nobody’s buying it and Republicans will get blamed.

If nothing changes, the political environment will be ripe for Democrats to make progress in legislative races. The state could shift five or six points toward them if demoralized or disgruntled Republican sit out the election. If that happens, Democrats could actually have an opening to take back the house, but they would need strong candidates in competitive contests, enough money, and a lot of lucky breaks.