The Washington Post this morning has a story about the Senate race in North Carolina. It’s the latest in a number of articles from national outlets that suggest Republicans believe North Carolina is getting out of reach. What’s different about this one is the title. It reads, “GOP appears deeply worried about Senate race in N.C., a once reliable state.” That’s not how I see North Carolina, but I think it’s the misperception of too many national journalists.
North Carolina has never been “reliable” for Republicans. It’s always been a fight, even if Republicans have won most presidential races over the past fifty years. Senate races have been notoriously competitive, and for the past twenty years the GOP has benefited from fundamentals. In particular, there’s been no midterm Senate race with a Republican president in the White House since 2002—until now.
In the two midterms in the past 20 years when the president was a Republican, 2006 and 2018, Democrats had banner years. Had North Carolina had Senate races those years, Democrats almost certainly would have won. The narrative would be significantly different.
As I’ve said before, Thom Tillis is the luckiest politician in recent memory. In 2014, he caught a break in his race against incumbent Kay Hagan. She almost held off Tillis in a wave election until the environment deteriorated because of the Ebola scare and ISIS executing journalists on live video. In the end, she lost by less than two points.
In 2020, Tillis got lucky again. This time, as an incumbent senator, he faced Cal Cunningham. Cunningham got caught in a sexting scandal just weeks before the election. Again, Tillis won by less than two points, and his own pollster said he would likely have lost without the scandal.
So here’s my point. Democrats, with a solid candidate, were always the favorite in North Carolina in 2026. They hit the jackpot with Cooper, a popular former governor and seasoned campaigner who knows how to run in the state. He drew the perfect foil in Michael Whatley, a Trump toady with little name recognition and less charisma.
Democrats also got a political environment tailor-made for the opposition party. Trump has been a disaster as president. He tanked a quickly recovering economy, got us into a war with no end in sight, allowed (encouraged?) rampant corruption, and has made his presidency about himself instead of the people he serves. Gas and diesel prices skyrocketing in the final weeks of the election are the icing on the cake.
Even though Cooper is the favorite right now, Republicans will probably continue to spend in North Carolina. Nationally, they have a huge financial advantage, even if ads can’t compete with gas prices. They want to keep Democrats spending here instead of in some other state. Eventually, though, they will probably drop Whatley unless something changes dramatically.
In the end, Cooper will likely win, unless some sort of monumental event occurs in the next few weeks. Polls show him up by double digits, but that won’t be the final margin. Most of those undecided voters are disgruntled Republicans who will either come home or stay home. Cooper will garner slightly more than 50%, and Whatley will probably land somewhere between 45 and 48 percent, with the difference going to third-party candidates.
Even with an advantage, Democrats here will run hard till the end. They understand the stakes—and the possibilities. A strong top of the ticket can bring riches down-ballot. Supreme Court candidate Anita Earls, arguably the most important race on the ballot, has a better chance of winning if Cooper performs well. His coattails could also help break Republicans’ veto-proof legislative majorities and, possibly, give Democrats control of the state House.
This election cycle was always going to be good for Democrats. The reason Michael Whatley is in the race is that Thom Tillis is so unpopular with Republicans that he couldn’t win a primary. The open-seat dynamic in a state like North Carolina would favor almost any competent Democrat. Having Roy Cooper running just added to the advantage. North Carolina was never reliably Republican.
Lets not take anything for granted. The race is not over until the votes are counted. I would hate to wake up the morning after the election and see that any Democrat has lost because we stopped working. Now is our chance to vote these corrupt Republicans out of office.
Thank you. I’m weary of the simplistic red-blue characterization of states and DC. It’s not helpful and it turns off voters. I once zoomed in on one of the most homogeneous precincts I could find. Sure enough, a few voters cast their ballots the other way, spitting into the wind, you might say. God bless them.