North Carolinians are in a bad mood

A poll shows a pessimistic electorate unhappy with Trump and where he's taken the country.

Credit: Politico Illustrations

My fellow blogger and erstwhile political consultant, Gary Pearce, and a group of Democrats have commissioned an in-depth poll of North Carolina. It’s more detailed than almost any public poll you will see from a media organization and it’s not tainted by the partisanship of a campaign poll. They’ve offered all the data, both toplines and crosstabs for anybody to see. In other words, it’s a very transparent poll.

I’ll be going through the crosstabs for days to come, but I’ve got some initial thoughts.

First, North Carolinians are a pessimistic bunch right now. People think both the state and nation are heading in the wrong direction. Almost 60% believe their income is falling behind the cost of living. More than 75% say they are feeling pinched by rising costs.

They think the problems that we face have been with us for a long time and will continue. A plurality, 40%, believed the first 25 years of this century have been a failure and 56% think children will be worse off when they are grown than people are today. That’s a pretty bleak place and helps explain why almost every election is a change election.

The poll hints at what may be causing such malaise. People have lost faith in most of the country’s institutions. They don’t trust the state or federal government, the news media, business leaders, election officials, or social media. In other words, they don’t believe the places they are getting their information.

The military and doctors and nurses are the only groups tested that receive universal trust. By wide margins, Republicans don’t trust teachers and educators or scientists, but have faith in religious leaders. Democrats, who are generally more educated, overwhelmingly trust teachers and scientists but are skeptical of religious leaders. Independents, in general, seem a skeptical lot. They have less trust in law enforcement and religious leaders than people affiliated with a party. For candidates thinking about validators during the election, this poll is a good reference.

Overall, the poll describes a terrible political environment for incumbents. People are pessimistic about the future and they’ve lost trust in institutions that once guided them. That’s a recipe for a change election. Republicans should probably be girding for a drubbing.

The political questions reinforce that opinion. Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in the state. His favorability rating is underwater by 16 points and his job approval rating is underwater by 13. In both ratings, 55% of the people disapprove of him. Among independents, only 11% have a favorable opinion of Trump. The midterm election will largely be a referendum on Trump.

To boost Democrats in North Carolina, Governor Josh Stein is broadly popular. His approval and job performance ratings are both positive. Independents approve of him by solid margins and Democrats are united behind him. Voters trust Stein more than the GOP legislature to do what is best for the state.

In the top of the ticket race in North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper leads likely Republican nominee Michael Whatley by ten points, 50-40. Cooper has a net favorability rating while Whatley has a negative one. The difference is that most people know Cooper and most do not know Whatley. Democrats still have an opportunity to define Whatley while Republicans will have a more difficult time defining Cooper.

In the race for Supreme Court, incumbent Democrat Anita Earls leads Republican Sarah Stevens by a narrow two points. Both sides have consolidated their bases, but more than half of self-identified independent voters are undecided. The ones who have chosen break for Earls by 15 points. This race will likely be highly influenced by the political environment and the Senate race above it on the ballot.

Voters narrowly choose Democrats in the generic ballot for legislature by three points. That said, independents break for Democrats by 23 points even though a majority say they are not sure or would not vote. That might not be enough to overcome heavily gerrymandered districts, but it’s enough to break veto-proof majorities.

I’ve just scratched the surface of the information in the poll. It tells a lot about attitudes and opinions, hinting at underlying motivations. The crosstabs also show divisions that are broader than just partisan. The generational and gender divides are visible in a number of questions. It’s a great resource to understand the voters in North Carolina.

That said, all polls are a snapshot in time. A lot can change between now and the election and that’s what I’m focused on in this analysis. Republicans have an uphill climb because they will get blamed for the problems we face today, unless we see an unprecedented reversal of fortune.