Paths to victory in North Carolina

Trump needs the electorate and voter behavior to look like 2020. Harris needs both to change.

With early voting over, Republicans and Democrats are both focused on Get-Out-the-Vote operations. In North Carolina, Election Day turnout will determine the outcome of the election. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have paths to victory in the state.

For Trump, he needs to hope the electorate looks similar to 2020. Republican turnout was a whopping 82% while Democrats voted at 75%. Unaffiliated voters turned out at 70%. Overall 2020 turnout was 75%. It’s hard to compare registration figures across election cycles because voter registration has shifted fairly dramatically over the past four years, so I will focus on demographics.

In 2020, the electorate skewed older and whiter. Among voters over 40 years old, turn out was around 83%. So far, close to 70% of that group has already voted. Among white voters, turnout was 79% in 2020 and African American voters turned out at 68%. By the end of early voting this year, 62% of white voters have voted and 51% of Black voters have gone to the polls.

Trump needs to hope these numbers hold and that voter behavior stays essentially the same as it did back in 2020. Even with his high turnout, he only won the state by 1.3% or just under 75,000 votes. His path to victory is repeating his performance from four years ago.

Harris, on the other hand, needs to see the electorate become somewhat younger and browner. Her campaign has reason to feel good, too. As early vote closed, younger voters were surging. If that surge continues on Election Day, they could shape a favorable election for Democrats.

While they started slow, Millennials and Gen Z, people 43 years old or younger, made up the largest group of voters every day for the last week of early voting and made up more than half of the voters over the final three days. They currently make up 32% of the people who have voted. If they increase that percentage to 35% of the overall electorate with their Election Day turnout, they will substantially cut into Trump’s 2020 margin.

Democrats need to narrow the gap between turnout of white voters and African American voters. Again, African American voters were surging in the final days of the early voting period. If they turnout at 70% or more, they, like the younger voters, will substantially diminish Trump’s margin in the state if the white turnout mirrors 2020.

Assuming voter behavior remains similar to 2020, Harris wins with an increase in younger and Black voters, a very plausible outcome. However, we really don’t know much about voter behavior. Several polls have suggested that women are voting more heavily for Harris than men are voting for Trump. If that’s true, Harris comes with a built-in advantage.

At the end of early voting four years ago, women made up about 10% more of the electorate than men. This year, they hold an eleven point advantage. In the final accounting in 2020, women voted by nine points more than men. If Harris wins women by close to the same percentage Trump wins men, then she will take the state.

Both campaigns were trying to peel-off or suppress voters from the other’s base. Trump tried to suppress Black and Hispanic voters with months of anti-transgender ads. Those ads were less about convincing anybody to vote for him than to get them to sit out the election altogether. I’m dubious that it worked, but who knows?

Harris, for her part, made a concerted effort to woo moderate Republicans. She rolled out a new high profile Republican leader who endorsed her almost every other day since the Democratic convention. Republicans for Harris made a big push in the state at the end of last week. I believe this effort could yield results. She might not persuade enough Republicans to turn the election by themselves, but she could certainly win enough to further erode Trump’s 75,000 2020 advantage.

The Trump campaign needs for the electorate to look very similar to 2020 in North Carolina and hope that voter behavior remains the same. The early vote totals look similar to the final 2020 turnout, but voter behavior is hard to gage. That’s his path to victory here.

Harris needs to hope that the electorate changes and voter behavior is a bit different than four years ago. The trends at the end of early vote should be promising with younger voters dominating the final days of early voting and African Americans increasing their turnout numbers, too. Those dynamics need to continue on Election Day.

As for voter behavior, overturning Roe v. Wade reshaped the national political landscape. A poll in Iowa this weekend indicated older conservative white women breaking heavily for Harris. With women voters making up substantially more of the electorate than men in North Carolina, even a small shift could turn the election. Finally, educated Republicans, especially women in urban/suburban areas, might take a pass on Trump or even vote for Harris.

In the end, I don’t think Trump can grow his support much in the state so if he wins, his margin will be similar or less than four years ago. Harris can win North Carolina by changing the electorate at the margins—a few more Black voters here, a few white Republicans there, a few more women here, and a few more young folks there. The question is whether she can erode Trump’s margin enough to take a lead. It certainly seems plausible.