Riding the wave: Initial thoughts on 2026

This election will go down in history as ending the Trump era.

Incoming NC House Speaker Robert Reives

Last night was like 1994, except my side was riding the wave instead of getting washed away by it. Back then, I was working my first campaign cycle and we never saw it coming. Republicans nobody had ever heard of got elected. Last night, three Democrats won Congressional seats in North Carolina and I still don’t know their names.

I’ll be writing about this election a lot over the next few months and probably referring to it for the rest of my life. These are my initial thoughts after three hours of sleep.

Back in 2006, the last midterm that Democrats took the House and Senate, we all thought we were brilliant. It was the last time a party won both Houses of Congress—until now. Looking back, I realize now that our efforts might have mattered around the margins, but the political environment did the heavy lifting. The same applies this year.

Democrats will be congratulating each other and patting themselves on the back, but they should really be thanking the voters, especially Republicans and independents. In the South, Black voters got us to a majority, but Republicans and unaffiliated gave us the rest. You don’t win Congressional districts like the one held by Tim Moore without a bunch of GOP crossover.

Speaking of Tim Moore, nobody deserves to lose more than him. He’s the epitome of the grifter class that the GOP has refused to check. He’s seen politics as a means to personal [enrichment?], and he cynically embraced Donald Trump and MAGA when he knew better. He’s reaped what he’s sown.

This election cycle is the first of two punishing ones for Republicans that will end the Trump era. Democrats will likely keep control of Congress until at least 2030 and will probably win the presidency in 2028. Donald Trump does not have the discipline and the GOP lacks the leadership to change the direction of the ship. They may claw back some of their losses in two years, but it won’t be enough to alter the balance of power in Washington or the North Carolina state House.

And in the North Carolina House, Robert Reives will take over as speaker with a virtual veto-proof majority, though he probably won’t need it. His hand is much stronger than that of his Republican counterparts in the Senate. They are going to have new, untested leadership with a razor-thin majority. It should bode well for Governor Stein’s tenure.

Phil Berger’s loss in the primary gave us hints about what would happen last night. Republicans so firmly rejected the GOP leadership in Raleigh that $10 million in a primary couldn’t save the Senate president pro tem. GOP voters were ready to give up on their own party. Last night they did.

Anita Earls retained her seat on the Supreme Court, setting up a fight for the majority in 2028. If Democrats are successful, Republican Chief Justice Paul Newby will rue the day he decided precedent and traditions don’t matter. A Democratic-controlled court can play by his rules and roll back decisions it doesn’t like—think gerrymandering.

Every now and then, an election changes the electorate permanently. The 1994 cycle did. The wave that year largely completed North Carolina’s transition from a one-party state to a two-party one.

I think last night was one of those nights. I think the Obama generation has come of age. For years, the people who first engaged with politics during the Obama years have been too young to vote regularly. Now, they’re in their late 30s and early 40s. They are going to vote more regularly from now on. The electorate has shifted, and last night was the signal that it’s begun. North Carolina might still be a purple state, but it’s one with a bluer hue than a red one.

In a district covering all of Lee and part of Moore Counties, April Montgomery won a state House seat running as an independent, or unaffiliated as we call them. It was the first time in 16 years that an independent has won a legislative seat in North Carolina. While April benefited from the wave, she also outperformed Roy Cooper by two points, and Cooper outperformed Democratic legislative candidates statewide by about five points. She is a great candidate who fits her district, and she proves that people who want change will vote for it given the chance.

I’ve been wanting to run independent candidates for years as a way to defeat gerrymandering. April did it this year, winning in a district Trump carried by about 25 points two years ago. Now, Democrats in the state House and Republicans in the state Senate should work together to end gerrymandering altogether. Neither side knows who will be drawing districts in 2031, so they should protect the voters instead of themselves.

My predictions missed the wave because I was too cautious. I have been burned too many times over the years. The early vote turned out to be 8.5% more Democratic than I predicted, and Election Day about 4-5 points more Democratic. I didn’t believe Republican turnout would collapse and I didn’t believe we would see significant GOP crossover votes. I was wrong on both counts—thank God.

I have so much more to say. I could write a thousand words or more on every paragraph in this post, but I’ll save it for another day. I just want to savor this victory because there probably won’t be another one like it in my lifetime.