Seven weeks in, seven weeks to go

Harris is at the midway of her candidacy and it's been phenomenal.

This weekend, a New York Times/Sienna poll dropped that caused a lot of anxiety among Democrats. The poll shows Trump up by one after Harris seemed to be adding to a growing lead since the convention. It’s just one poll, though, and this race was always going to be close.

With the momentum Harris gathered heading into the convention, a lot of Democrats believed they were heading toward a blow out. Trump seemed helpless to figure out how to respond to the enthusiasm surrounding the new Harris campaign. The poll was a bit deflating, but not really surprising. It doesn’t mean her momentum has reversed or even stalled. It just means she’s picked the low-hanging fruit and done it in record time.

Harris revived Democratic chances when she became the nominee. Biden trailed Trump in every swing state leading up to the June 21 debate. In the aftermath, the President’s support plummeted. The chance of him changing the dynamic of the race was slim and Trump’s entire operation was geared toward taking advantage of a tired warrior. The Harris-Walz ticket put Trump on the defensive.

Harris now is tied or leading in most swing states according to most the polling averages and has gained more than three points in each state since she became the nominee. Even with the latest poll, she still holds about a 3 point advantage nationally, according to most polling averages. She altered the trajectory of the campaign and made up an amazing amount of ground in just seven weeks.

In particular, Harris is addressing the problems Democrats faced heading into the summer. She has shored up lagging support from African American voters. According to a Washington Post poll of Black voters, 69% of African American voters say they are sure they will vote for Harris, while only 62% said the same about Biden. With Harris still introducing herself to the American public, that number will probably increase between now and the election.

Young people have also become engaged at a much higher level. They overwhelmingly support the change from Biden to Harris and support Harris by a wide margin. As Harvard pollster John Della Volpe tweeted, there are “profound generational divides driving politics today.” Younger voters support Harris by as much 28% in swing states. A lot of these younger voters would have sat out the election without Harris on the ballot.

Harris has generated genuine enthusiasm for the ticket that is measurable. Low-dollar donations are fueling the Harris campaign at record breaking levels. Volunteer signups are far higher than they’ve been throughout the year. Her candidacy has created an engaged electorate that just wasn’t there at the beginning of the summer.

Pundits are saying Harris’ momentum has stalled. That’s not right. She has closed the gap between her and Trump in a very short amount of time. She’s secured the support of the Democratic base and motivated young people and people of color. The race has settled into its natural state—a toss up that’s going to be fiercely fought over the next two months. Gains from here on out will be in inches, not feet.

Harris is at the midway of her candidacy. Joe Biden dropped out of the race seven weeks ago yesterday. Election Day is seven weeks from tomorrow. Harris has had a spectacular run, despite what some of her critics would claim. She solidified her candidacy in less than a week. She brought disgruntled Democratic constituencies back into the fold. She excited an otherwise lackadaisical base. She held an inspiring convention that highlighted the competency of the Democratic Party.

Harris won every news cycle from July 21 to August 23 when the convention ended. While her whirlwind schedule slowed as she prepares for the debate, her campaign showed a superb sense of timing. Her interview last week gave her air-time and kept the ball moving forward. The Cheney endorsements last week shed more positive attention on the race and dominated the conversation for a couple of days.

The critics of the campaign mostly don’t understand either campaigns or candidates. Harris went from a background figure to the principle of a presidential campaign in less than a week. She rose to the moment when a lot of others, even talented politicians, might have faltered. She brought thousands of people into arenas and showed that she is ready to lead.

A mass of critics, mainly from the media, complain that she’s hiding from the press. She’s not. She’s prioritizing her time correctly. She solidified her base in a remarkably short period of time. She pulled together a dazzling convention in less than a month. She’s done one interview with a national outlet and she’s preparing for her first presidential debate against a guy who has done multiple over three different election cycles. The campaign has set priorities and stuck to them without getting distracted by too many voices. The people second-guessing the campaign have little understanding the task at hand or complexity of putting together a national organization in seven weeks.

There’s a lot of work to do and the next seven weeks will be a tough fight. Harris and her campaign have proven that they are up for the task. Nobody ever said she was guaranteed a win but she stopped an almost guaranteed loss. Fight on.