Signs of life

Democrats won in Wisconsin by 10 points despite Musk's millions.

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Upon hearing that a newspaper had published his obituary, Mark Twain famously said, “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” I think the same can be said of the Democratic Party.

I’m old enough to have lived through the deaths of both parties several times only to watch their resurrection in just a cycle or two. Nixon killed the GOP but gave rise to the Reagan Revolution after a single term of Jimmy Carter. Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s chief strategist, told us in 2001 that Republicans were building a permanent majority only to see Barack Obama cruise to a crushing victory in 2008. Republicans seemed to be in a shambles after that election but won in the biggest wave election since the Great Depression just two years later. Last night indicates the Democrats are not dead yet.

Democrats won the Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin by ten points despite Elon Musk spending millions of dollars to elect a Republican. The victory protects a 4-3 majority on the court and indicates a highly motivated Democratic base and a lackluster Republican electorate. Money only goes so far in politics and it certainly didn’t fire up the GOP base. If only every election were a referendum on Elon, the GOP would be headed to minority status.

While we’re just getting started in the 2026 midterm cycle, these results look a lot more like 2018 than 2022. Back in 2018, Democrats came out in droves in opposition to Donald Trump. Trump surge voters sat out that year because he wasn’t on the ballot. In North Carolina, the party had the best midterm since 2006. Had there been a U.S. Senate race on the ticket that year, a Democrat would have won it. That’s the environment Thom Tillis, or whoever wins the GOP primary, will face in 2026.

A few things don’t change in politics. People are more motivated by fear and anger than anything else. Democrats are both scared and mad. They are coming out to vote in 2026 just like they did in Wisconsin last night.

I’m not saying that the party doesn’t have problems. Democrats have allowed themselves to be defined by their left flank. Too many people who don’t pay much attention to politics believe Democrats care more about other people than them. The party needs to reconnect better with working class voters and focus more on issues that have broad appeal. With 401(k)s shrinking as the stock market falls and the emerging tariff regime set to raise prices, they have a huge opening.

The party has a leadership void that needs to be filled with a new crop of leaders. They’ve allowed a generation of Baby Boomers to lead the party even though people like Chuck Schumer don’t really understand the communications and technological environment that has emerged in the past decade. Fortunately, we’re starting to see people like AOC, Cory Booker, Adam Schiff, Jasmine Crocket, and Chris Murphy taking the fight to the GOP. I’m confident that more new leaders will fill the vacuum over the course of the next year.

I’m not ignoring that we face unprecedented challenges from Donald Trump. As one pundit noted, he’s not governing like he’s going to give up power. Elected Republicans and their allied pundits no longer even pretend to believe in the Constitution or the rule of law. They’re now just making excuses for Trump’s abuse of power. But they are also just self-interested. Democrats need to make them more scared of voters than they are of Trump.

I also think there needs to be more outrage about Trump’s outrages. Democratic leaders should have been united in opposition to sending people to a foreign gulag without due process, regardless of who they are. They should have been standing up for the woman snatched off the streets of Boston by a bunch of goons. Fighting a police state is the right thing to do even if the people being persecuted aren’t popular. I believe it’s possible to get on the right side of the American people on the immigration issue and stand up for basic human rights at the same time. The party needs to do a better job of it.

They should be louder about the blatant corruption happening in the administration. Elon Musk just tried to buy an election in Wisconsin and it appears he bought the presidency. Democrats should be demanding either investigations or reform of the FEC and election laws. The DOJ is dropping corruption investigations against Trump supporters while using the power of the office to attack law firms representing opponents. That’s the stuff of dictators.

Trump is governing by edict. At the very least, Democrats need to call out the hypocrisy of the Republicans who long bemoaned the use of executive orders by Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Republicans might not have any shame, but at least give the Democratic base a little self-righteousness as they protest a party that has abandoned all of its core values to support a would-be dictator.

We are not going back to normal. Trump has upended our country. We will likely never be trusted by our western allies again. Almost half the country will live an alternate reality of conspiracy theories and outrages perpetuated by an exaggerated and distorted version of left-wing activists. I’m not sure it’s possible to build a sustainable majority and we might be swinging wildly for the next 20 years.

But I am pretty sure that a few things won’t change. People will remain self-interested. If they believe they’re doing well, then they will support the status quo, either by voting for the party in the White House or just forgetting to vote altogether. If they’re hurting or feeling insecure, they’ll vote for change. Predictions about electoral trends will be proven wrong. When I started working in politics, New York and California were swing states and West Virginia was solidly blue, so the dire predictions about Democrats’ electoral fortunes probably won’t come true.

Finally, if you’re someone who sees the world like me, you don’t really have any choice but to fight. Moving to another country is not going to change the fact that the most powerful country in the world that was once a beacon for democracy is undergoing an assault by illiberal, autocratic assholes. I’m going to be just as outraged in Europe or Central America or Asia as I am here. At least here, I’m in the ring rather than shouting from the bleachers. I’m not dead yet.