Summer doldrums

Campaign news will slow as people leave for vacations and kids take a break from school.

First, I’d like to introduce you to Alex Jones’ new substack, New Branchhead. Alex has written for PoliticsNC almost since its beginning more than a decade ago. He’s insightful and has a keen knowledge of North Carolina’s political history. Give it a read and support his writing. It’s worth your time.

Second, I’m heading to the mountains for a few days with limited access to internet. I won’t be publishing for a few days, so enjoy your time off from reading me. I’ll see you at the end of next week.

With schools ending, politics is entering into the summer doldrums. People are heading to the beach or mountains while the kids and grandkids are out of school. They are staying outside longer and paying less attention to politics and current events. Now is a good time to assess where we are. Short of some sort of seismic event, not much is likely to change until the final campaign begins at the end of the summer.

On the presidential level, both candidates seem to be struggling. Donald Trump is now officially a convicted felon and is 0-3 in civil and criminal cases since he left the presidency. He’s been found liable for sexual assault and he had $355 million against him for fraud because he lied about his wealth to obtain loans. Now, he’s being held accountable for trying to cover up his fling with a porn star while his wife was giving birth to his son.

You’ve got to hand it to those Republicans. They sure can pick ‘em. It’s really hard for me to comprehend how people who know who this man is still kowtow to him. It’s a party of people who have burned their self-respect in the dumpster fire of the modern GOP.

Biden has his own troubles. His image of old and out-of-touch is sticking with him despite his showing at the State of the Union and other events. Young people just aren’t excited about him. The memory of inflation is also doggedly on people’s minds. Prices aren’t going to go down but consumers still long for the days of $1.50 eggs and they blame Biden that they are gone.

That said, the war in Gaza is beginning to fade as a driver of political sentiment. Young people have left for the summer and any encampments are now minor blips on the news circuit. While it’s not over, news of the war is not dominating headlines anymore like a month or so ago.

Democrats are going to try to make the election a referendum on abortion and try to downplay Trump. I think abortion is very salient, but ignoring Trump is wrong. Can you imagine an election for U.S. Senate or House where a Republican was convicted during an election cycle and the Democratic incumbent would say, “Let’s not talk about that.”

I think that’s a huge mistake and recognition that the Democratic political establishment hasn’t figured out the modern campaign battlefield. They are still relying on ads instead of conversations to drive campaign messaging. Their campaigns look remarkably like ones run a decade or two ago while the media landscape has altered dramatically.

Democrats turned their electoral campaigns and organizations over to people who make ads and earn money from commissions. Republicans turned their operations over to the people who own media platforms and make their money from the people who make ads. It’s very frustrating to watch.

Here in North Carolina, I’m optimistic about the Democratic ticket. The slate of candidates for Council of State is stellar. Almost every candidate is better qualified than their Republican opponent. In the most high-profile races, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, the GOP has nominated people well outside of the mainstream. In contrast, Josh Stein, Rachel Hunt, and Jeff Jackson bring unique qualities that should sell well to North Carolina’s swing voters. In the race for superintendent of public instruction, Republican nominee Michele Morrow is Q-anon nut job who has no experience and calls public schools indoctrination centers. Democratic nominee Mo Green is one of the most experienced and knowledgeable people to run for the office.

Democrats seem to be taking the races for Supreme Court and Court of Appeals more seriously. The candidates are moving around the state and are as well suited for the jobs as their council of state counterparts. Led by Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, the appellate ticket is experienced and motivated. Democrats seem to be taking the judicial races more seriously than they have in the past. It’s about time.

Democrats in state races have a long history of separating themselves from the national ticket. Both Roy Cooper and Josh Stein won races, twice, with Trump winning the state. Democrats have been succeeding since Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980 and Jim Hunt won his second term as governor. So while winning the state for Biden would be great, Democrats aren’t tied to his success.

I suspect the races will be on hold for most voters. Not much will change during the summer—at least outwardly. The campaigns will be beefing up the coffers and staffing up their campaigns. The sprint will begin in August and the fall will be loud and ugly.