The pain is about to start

Trump has been fighting on his turf, but he's running out of territory.

Right now, Donald Trump is mostly fighting on his turf. He’s made deporting immigrants and cutting government his priorities. He’s getting cheered by Republicans and conservatives for his aggressive actions. It’s not going to last. There are only so many immigrants he can deport before he causes pain in communities. There’s only so much government he can eliminate before the consequences start to hurt people and their families.

Voters overwhelmingly wanted Trump to end the flood of migrants into the country and deport any troublemakers. They don’t really want to know the details of what’s happening and aren’t going to hold him accountable for violations of civil rights or the Constitution. Republicans in Congress have surrendered their constitutional powers so they aren’t going to reel him in. The deportations will continue unabated and cheered by conservatives.

Republicans are framing the debate as a choice between leaving criminals in the country or deporting them. Democrats criticizing the administration for denying people due process will lose in the court of public opinion, even if they are correct in their assessments. Most American aren’t going to listen to a process argument either because they don’t understand or they don’t care—or both. They just want fewer immigrants in the country.

Elon Musk’s DOGE is a GOP fantasy and the Constitution is just an inconvenience. He’s trying to cut the government back to the Roaring ‘20s when most Americans died in poverty and the rich partied until 1929. A lot of people want to give Musk and Trump leeway because they believe the government is bloated. They won’t sour on the project until they realize Musk cut the program that benefits them.

We’re only two months into the administration and the consequences of their actions haven’t been felt widely, but they are coming. A friend of mine has been talking to developers about building a few houses on a piece of property he owns. The deal fell through when the builders told him they aren’t taking on any new projects because of the uncertainty of material prices. They can’t estimate costs with Trump jerking the economy around with his on-again-off-again tariff regime.

They also can’t predict labor costs. A lot of those deportees were working in the construction industry. Builders may find themselves paying much higher costs for employees and contractors. Those same concerns will spread across the economy, making businesses reluctant to invest in their companies and hesitant to make long term plans.

The impact of tariffs will hit soon. New cars are about to increase in price from between $4,000 and $12,000. Buy now, because you won’t get a better deal anytime soon. I expect that applies to a lot of other goods, too.

Musk and his DOGE cronies have been a comedy of errors, firing and unfiring workers, cutting and uncutting agencies, but the pain is just starting to be felt. They are going after Social Security now. People who worked hard all of their lives and paid into the system are losing their checks. Those stories are just starting and we’ll hear more of them.

Veterans are going to take a huge hit. Administration officials are telling them that they are cutting the VA budget and personnel to offer better service. That’s like the old GOP wives’ tale that lower taxes pay for themselves.

Trump’s favorability rating is as high as it’s ever been, but people are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy for the first time since he was first elected in 2016. The effects of his policies on people and the economy are just starting to be felt. Businesses are going to pay higher labor and material costs which they will pass on to consumers. Uncertainty is already spooking the markets and that will lead to greater hesitancy to expand or invest in new facilities or buildings.

People voted for change in November and Trump is giving it to them. They will likely give him leeway to see what happens, but they won’t tolerate economic pain for long. His tariffs and deportations will drive up prices. People will lose services they’ve taken for granted due to the DOGE cuts. Services will deteriorate because of layoffs and firings. When the toll begins, expect Trump’s favorability to drop. But don’t expect Americans to care too much about the Constitution or civil rights.