The popularity gap

Democrats have an advantage in identification and should build on it.

Gallup released numbers this week showing that the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republican or Republican-leaning independents is lower than at any time since 2015. The number identifying as Democrat or Democrat-leaning is higher than it’s been since 2020, right after Biden won. Democrats hold a ten-point advantage, 49% to 39%.

That almost 40% of the country could still identify with the party of Trump is disturbing, but I’ll take the advantage. We still have a ways to go before the election and we don’t know where the Republican floor is yet. It’s already low enough to scare a lot of incumbent Republicans out of running again, though.

Democrats shouldn’t get too confident about their advantage. They still make up less than half the country and with the electoral college and Senate maps, they have a long way to go before they can be confident of anything. None of those 39% who are still Republican and the 12% or so who don’t know who they support are clamoring for any sort of transformational programs. They just want to be able to live relatively comfortably with a little job security and a future for their kids or grandkids.

That said, the situation is probably not going to get better for Trump. His war in Iran is going to cause gas prices to rise and they could be far higher than when he was elected. His affordability agenda is in the toilet. His no-more-wars promise was clearly just a lie. His deportation program alienated most of the country. The only thing he’s gotten right is closing the border and nobody’s talking about that too much anymore.

I worry that Democrats will promise either what they can’t deliver or deliver what will turn Americans against them. I was dismayed to see U.S. Senators Cory Booker and Chris Van Hollen introducing tax breaks for middle class families. Why in the world are they playing on Republican turf?

The idea that somehow we can tax billionaires into oblivion while giving huge tax breaks to the middle class is just folly. It’s bad economics that will end up bankrupting the safety net programs that we need for a healthy middle class. We don’t need to be figuring out how to pay for a better health care system and help families that need day care.

Republicans are the party that offers tax cuts they can’t pay for and then claims they need to cut worthwhile government programs to pay for them. Just look at North Carolina schools. They cut revenue and then watched teacher pay and per pupil spending sink to the bottom of the national barrel.

I’m struggling with Democratic proposals that seem to think money grows on trees. The Democratic Socialist wing of the party seems to have little understanding of how the countries they admire work. The middle class pays far more in taxes in Scandinavian countries than we do here. They get great services and have a high quality of life but it’s not cheap and it’s certainly not paid for by billionaires.

If Democrats want to build on their growing popularity, they need to get back to basics and make government work again. They have an opportunity. Take advantage of Republicans’ embrace of the carnival barker in the White House and make them pay a price. Then build on their support by notching small, tangible wins. Making promises they can’t keep or that will end up hurting the people they’re trying to help won’t work out very well.