The Republican permission structure

The New Hampshire primary exposes Trump's problems but GOP elites will try to prop him up

Last night, Donald Trump defeated his former Ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary by about 12 points. Trump is mad that she’s not dropping out. She’s crowing that she still has a path to victory. The next primary is in her home state on February 24.

While 12 points is a solid victory, it also shows that Trump is still struggling to solidify his support among moderate Republicans and independents. In contrast, Biden wasn’t even listed on the ballot and still defeated his upstart opponent, Rep. Dean Phillips, by 33 points. Haley looked more upbeat in her speech after the results than Trump did in his.

Perceptions of the presidential race seem to be shifting. As journalist and Duke grad John Harwood tweeted yesterday, “[W]e're in early stages of massive analytic shift from ‘Biden's in big trouble’ to ‘Trump's in big trouble.’” He was responding to a Politico article that says a lot of independent and even moderate GOP voters are not willing to vote for Trump again. Some of the article is anecdotal and some is based on a single poll, but the New Hampshire results show that Trump has a problem outside of the hardcore GOP base.

As I’ve said, perceptions of a political race a year out mean very little. While Biden will probably never be really popular, his approval ratings will likely track with the economy, even if they lag a bit. As people begin to become more confident that their financial situations are secure, he will see his ratings go up. As people come to realize that Trump is, in fact, going to be the GOP nominee, I suspect Biden’s prospects will improve with independent voters. They might never like him very much, but they’ll like Trump less.

As for the GOP, we’re watch a disturbing trend among their more rational leaders. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell says that traditional Republicans are setting up a “permission structure” for “nomral”people to vote for Trump. elected officials like New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu who oppose Trump in the primary say they will support him if he becomes the nominee. They are putting party before country by telling people it’s okay to vote for a man who has little respect for democracy or the institutions that protect our rights and freedoms.

The number of Republicans falling in line is disturbing. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis endorsed Trump as he left the primary, even though Trump humiliated and belittled him throughout the year. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Trump even though Nikki Haley appointed him to the Senate in the first place. Ambition and fealty to Trump are the core values of the modern Republican Party.

I suspect that our U.S. Senator, Thom Tillis, will join this permission structure. He allowed Trump to humiliate him back in 2019 in order to secure his endorsement in a potential primary. Tillis shows flashes of independence, but his shameless ambition usually wins out over any sense of decency or patriotism. I hope he will sit out the presidential election if Trump is the nominee, but I expect he will endorse the ex-president once the primaries are over.

In addition to the GOP elites propping up Trump, Wall Street executives seem to be rallying to the cause, too. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon who sharply criticized Trump after January 6 is suddenly praising Trump. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce initially withheld donations from Members of Congress who voted against certifying the election. Now, they’re more concerned about regulations than democracy and are funding insurrectionists’ campaigns. At the end of the day, they will take tax cuts over democracy.

Trump’s electoral problems are becoming increasingly obvious as the election shifts into general election mode. He has huge liabilities among moderate and independent voters who don’t want a return to the chaos of the Trump years. However, the GOP elite is falling in line and so are the money people. They will take Trump’s abuse of power and people for tax cuts and less regulation. They’re sacrificing their patriotism for money and power.