This year, North Carolina may be a better bet for Democrats than Georgia

There are more variables this cycle in North Carolina than in Georgia.

This morning, Colin Campbell’s newsletter from WUNC Politics notes that the North Carolina Republican Party is sending out a boatload of mail attacking Kamala Harris and praising Donald Trump. We’ve gotten a lot of that mail in my household, addressed to my 19-year-old daughter who will be voting in her first presidential election. The mail, so far, seems to be uncontested.

While they are loading up the mailbox, the Trump campaign is not buying a ton of television here, at least they aren’t reserving it. According to Ad Impact, a site that tracks political ad spending in realtime, Trump and his allies have only reserved $1 million in airtime in North Carolina. In contrast, Democrats have reserved more than $30 million for Harris. Trump may be buying week-to-week, but it’s still a sign that the Trump campaign is fairly confident in their ability to hold North Carolina, the only one of the seven swing states they won in 2020. It’s also a sign that Harris holds a significant financial advantage going down the stretch. They’ve raised more than $600 million since she became the nominee.

Harris closed a four-point gap in North Carolina between the time she became the nominee and the convention. Since then, the race in the state has been a stalemate with most polls showing Trump up by about a point, well within the margin of error. In August, Trump outspent Harris by more than 2-to-1 in the state and yet the race is still tied, not a great sign for the former president.

Trump’s ad buys indicate that his campaign believes Pennsylvania and Georgia are his most important states. He’s keeping parity with Harris in both of those states while he has significant air time reserved in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona even though Harris is outspending him by almost 2-to-1 or more. In North Carolina, Trump’s campaign probably believes Harris has made up all the ground possible and the political dynamic will keep the state close or in his favor without a more robust investment.

I would argue that North Carolina is a better bet for Harris this year than Georgia. While Biden won Georgia in 2020, he did so with two U.S. Senate races on the ballot. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff were both drivers of the electorate and Warnock is one of the best communicators in the country. This year, Georgia only has legislative races to help drive the turnout.

Until last election cycle, North Carolina was always a more closely contested state than Georgia and one that Obama won in 2008. This year, the state has a slate of talented Democrats running for council of state and statewide judicial seats. They can help reach into pockets where Democrat need to either increase their margins or narrow them. As Nate Silver wrote, “The hottest club in the Electoral College is North Carolina.”

All of that said, Harris needs the spending advantage she has in North Carolina. She’s still introducing herself, while everyone already knows Trump. With fewer ad dollars, Trump is not spending as much defining her negatively with the few swing voters still left in the state. Harris is spending to keep it close while Trump is relying on historical trends to keep him afloat.

The North Carolina outcome won’t be determined by ads. It will come down to turnout. In 2020, Trump got a much better electorate here than Biden. Older white voters showed up in force while younger Black voters did not. This year, the electorate could look a bit different and more favorable to Harris.

According to data analyst Tom Bonier, new registrants in North Carolina soared the week Harris became the nominee. Of the new registrants, 43% are under 30 years compared to 27% during the same time period in 2020. In addition, there’s a 12% gender gap favoring women while the gap was only 6% four years ago. While new registrants won’t necessarily swing the election, the figures show who is motivated to vote this year.

The Harris campaign has built a significant field operation in the state. They will have the people on the ground to influence turnout in the state. They have a motivated base and more favorable electorate than four years ago. The money supporting Democrats down the ballot might help define the party more positively across North Carolina while souring voters on a GOP that nominated a slate of extremist candidates. There are more variables in North Carolina to consider this year than in Georgia.

If Trump loses North Carolina, he loses the race. The state could be the backstop for the Harris campaign. Democrats here have the infrastructure, the experience, and the momentum. And, right now, they have an advantage in advertising. The debate next week could be the most significant factor left in the election. It’s going to be a nailbiter.