To buy a primary
Upstart millionaire trial lawyer Bill Graham is attacking LG Mark Robinson. Could it create and opening for Dale Folwell?
It’s time to tune into Republican primaries. In the presidential race, only two contestants are left after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis bowed out yesterday, throwing his support to the man who diminished and insulted him. In North Carolina, the GOP primary for governor is getting red hot.
Tomorrow is a crucial day for Nikki Haley. She goes head-to-head with Donald Trump in a state that is notorious for upending presidential races. She needs to have a strong showing to continue her campaign. Haley says she’ll stay in the race at least through the South Carolina primary, but if she loses big tomorrow, I doubt she’ll hang around to be humiliated in her home state.
If Trump wins New Hampshire by a large margin, he will put to rest the idea that the GOP has any wing but his. The state is known for its independent and libertarian bent. Haley has a clear shot at Trump because the vote won’t be splintered. If there’s really a substantial faction of the GOP that wants to move beyond Trump, we’re about to find out.
Here in North Carolina, millionaire trial lawyer Bill Graham has started a shooting war in the fight for the GOP nomination for governor. Graham unleashed two attack ads on frontrunner Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Both hit Robinson for his history of antisemitic comments and downplaying the Holocaust. In one of the ads, Graham professes his support for Israel in its war against Hamas. Robinson responded by comparing Graham to Democrats who have been criticizing him for years for his antisemitic social media posts.
According to Public Policy Polling, Robinson leads the field with 55% of the vote, Graham has 15%, and State Treasurer Dale Folwell is at 7%. Folwell has also criticized Robinson for his remarks. Graham told reporters, “If this guy is nominated by the Republican Party I will guarantee a loss and (Democrat) Josh Stein will be the governor for the next four years.”
There’s a lot going on here. Bill Graham is relatively unknown outside of GOP fundraising circles despite having run for governor in 2008. He has pledged to put $5 million of his own money into his campaign. Back in October, he ran a positive ad designed to introduce himself to the electorate. It was enough to elevate himself above Folwell, but not enough to seriously dent Robinson’s lead.
Now, Graham must be seeing the same numbers that PPP has. He can’t win without bringing Robinson’s numbers down and increasing the light gov’s negatives among GOP primary voters. With the war in Gaza taking center stage in national news, Robinson’s anti-jewish statements are turning into a liability and Graham is trying to exploit them.
We’ll see how long Robinson lets the attacks go unanswered. He hasn’t filed an end-of-year report, but in his midyear report, Robinson reported more than $3 million cash-on-hand. If he’s done any fundraising the past six months, he should have plenty of money to respond. By the end of this week, his polling will most likely be able to tell him if the attacks are doing significant damage.
The North Carolina primary is six weeks from tomorrow. Robinson probably wants to sit on his money for another couple of weeks, but he can’t hemorrhage too much support before he’ll need to do something. I suspect he’ll first try to solidify his support, touting his endorsement by Trump, but he’ll also need to drive up Graham’s negatives if his lead is dwindling and the support is all going to Graham.
In a three-way race, two candidates going head-to-head with negatives ads can open a pathway for a candidate who otherwise has little traction. In 2004, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean were clear frontrunners in the Iowa Caucus and trained all of their firepower on each other. By caucus night, they had effectively soured the voters on each other’s campaigns and John Kerry came in first, followed by John Edwards. Folwell will need some money to breakthrough, but a fight between Graham and Robinson could provide him an opportunity.
Folwell, for his part, has problems with the Republican establishment. As state treasurer, he should have more institutional support than he has. Elected officials are lining up behind Robinson and Graham. The only prominent endorsement he’s gotten is the State Employees Association of North Carolina, a group that historically has more influence with Democratic voters than Republican ones.
In his midyear report, Folwell only raised about $160,000 from donors but had loaned the campaign $1.1 million. That’s not a lot, but if he loaned himself over a million dollars, we don’t know how much more he can spend. If Robinson and Graham are driving each other’s negatives up, he might not need that much to squeak through as an alternative to two bloody opponents.
Trump is another unknown. He’s already endorsed Robinson. If he secures the nomination tomorrow night, would he be willing come to the state to help the lieutenant governor? I’m dubious. Trump’s never been loyal to anybody and if he thinks Robinson might be a liability, he’ll stay away.
I suspect Graham’s assessment of Robinson is correct. He’s an unelectable candidate in a general election. If Robinson starts losing support, it will be interesting to see if Democrats get involved in the primary like they did in other states in 2022, helping the GOP nominate the least electable candidate. If they do, they’ll need to splinter the vote instead of just taking out one candidate.
This week we’re about learn a lot about the GOP. By tomorrow night, we’ll know if there’s a serious faction of Republicans who can challenge Trump for total control of the party. By the end of the week, we’ll probably know whether Mark Robinson is going to have trouble securing the nomination for governor. Six weeks is plenty of time to shift the narrative in a primary. The race hasn’t even really started for most people.
