In the early vote in North Carolina, Democrats are still dominating the turnout, though their plurality is slowly shrinking. They make up 44% of the voters so far, and Republicans make up 22%. Unaffiliated voters are at 34%, outpacing Republicans. Those unaffiliated voters are breaking for Democrats by about 15 points, according to a recent poll. The gap between Democrats and Republicans will continue to shrink, but the question is by how much. What’s happening outside the voting booth will influence the turnout and the outcome.
For Republicans overall, the news keeps getting worse. Last night, a Trump-aligned super PAC pulled out of NC-11, signaling that it believes Democrat Jamie Ager is likely to win the congressional seat. Donald Trump went on stage in Greenville and conceded that Roy Cooper would be the next senator for North Carolina. Virginia Foxx is running ads in a district that Trump won by 18 points.
In Ohio, Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy released an ad featuring Democratic nominee Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar. It turns out the mother lost custody of Acton and her brother for abusing them. Acton’s stepfather was indicted for sexually abusing her, and the mother sided with the stepfather and apparently still does.
The ad is horrific, and it’s being condemned by both sides. It’s also the kind of thing that reminds voters that Trump never released the Epstein files, and that Republicans seem willing to protect pedophiles when it’s in their political interest.
In Texas, Neil Bush, George W. Bush’s brother, went on social media to let the world know that he voted for James Talarico over Ken Paxton. He says he has “deep concerns” about Paxton. In particular, Bush criticized Paxton for pushing election denial in 2020 and believes he’s done damage to the Republican Party. Bush is creating a permission structure for Texas Republicans to sit out the Senate race or support Talarico.
The election forecasters at Sabato’s Crystal Ball pushed 30 seats toward Democrats, including moving Don Davis in NC-01 and Ager in NC-11 from toss-up to Lean-D. They now have enough seats favoring Democrats to shift control of the House. They say there are enough competitive races for Democrats to capture as many as 235 seats, matching their majority after 2018.
All of this reminds me of 2006. Back then, the cycle began with most people expecting Republicans to keep control of the Senate while the House seemed to be in play. By September, the situation looked different. Candidate quality was hampering the GOP, and a series of scandals hurt Republican credibility. Combined with Bush’s handling of Hurricane Katrina and setbacks in the war in Iraq, the political environment deteriorated until anything seemed possible by the fall.
Republicans kept making unforced errors. Virginia Senator George Allen called an Indian-American tracker “macaca,” a scandal that eventually cost him his seat. Florida Congressman Mark Foley was exposed for sexually harassing male pages, forcing his resignation about a month before the election. Republican Rep. Bob Ney, after months of maintaining his innocence, pleaded guilty in the Abramoff scandal in October. Finally, Ted Haggard, an evangelical leader and adviser to Bush and congressional Republicans, got caught paying for sex with a male escort.
This year, Republicans are plagued by a president who can’t keep his mouth shut. Ramaswamy’s ad might remind people of why they don’t like Republicans, but Trump’s actions indicate he doesn’t care about them. While Americans are worried about rising prices, Trump is upgrading golf courses and building monuments to himself. In North Carolina, he threatened to withhold support for veterans who suffered ailments from toxic water if Democrats win.
Republicans are sending him into states knowing that he’s alienating swing voters, but also knowing he may be the only person who can motivate his reluctant base. It’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. It was all so avoidable, and all so delicious to watch.
Great news about NC-11!
I hope that horrendous ad by Ramaswamy backfires spectacularly.