Votes flow down hill

Why the national political environment matters for North Carolina elections

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The biggest single factor influencing North Carolina elections this November is probably the presidential race. If Joe Biden does well here, Democrats will do well. If Donald Trump does well here, Republicans will do well. Votes flow downhill. Hence, paying attention to the national political environment is crucial to understanding what is or will happen in our gubernatorial and other statewide elections.

Right now, the political environment keeps getting better for Biden. Yesterday, we got word that the economy grew by 3.3% for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 3.1% for the year. This time last year, most economists were predicting a recession. In contrast, the Wall Street Journal reports, “Growth was strong, employers added nearly a half-million jobs and inflation cooled to an annualized 1.7% rate, below the Fed’s 2% target.” The news couldn’t get much better for an incumbent in the White House.

On top of the good economic figures, Americans are starting to feel better about their financial situations. As Axios says, “America’s economic mood is improving fast.” Gas prices are falling and the stock market is booming. The gloom of the past few years is starting to lift. I suspect Biden’s approval ratings will get a bit better, too. Regardless, he and the Democrats will benefit if the economy is humming.

Republicans are desperately trying to create an alternative reality. To hear them tell it, the economy is in the tank and Americans are struggling. Thom Tillis told reporters, “If [Trump] is the nominee, and he’s likely to be, he’s going to win on a devastated economy, failure to lead globally, a number of other things that make President Biden weak.” That’s some serious wishful or delusional thinking.

As inflation cools and the economy improves, Republicans are working hard to make immigration the dividing issue. Right now, a bipartisan group of Senators, including Tillis, is working on a deal that would strengthen border security and begin to fix our broken immigration system. Trump is urging GOP Senators to scrap the deal and House Republicans are saying they won’t pass anything. They’re scared of giving Biden another win and taking away a salient issue that favors them . It’s the politics of cynicism.

While the press and a number of Republican lawmakers have declared immigration reform dead, Tillis and others involved in the effort claim a deal is still possible. One news outlet reported that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told Senators, “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him,” referring to Trump and his campaign. Tillis pushed back, telling reporters, “That didn’t happen.”

Tillis also rebuked Republicans who say the legislation is too weak. Instead, he accused them of cowardice and said, “Don’t pretend that the policy isn’t strong.” And what are they scared of? Donald Trump, of course.

Tillis then made an interesting statement. “I do not want to be a part of history that fails democracy,” he told reporters. I would argue that he’s in the wrong party. Maybe he should consider a life change.

Democrats need to flip the script on immigration. If Republicans are going to sink the immigration bill, Schumer needs to bring it to the floor for a vote and let Republicans shoot it down. Make the GOP the obstacle to reform. They’ve been opposing efforts to fixing our broken system since they shot down George W. Bush’s Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007. They don’t want to fix the problem because problems at the border juices their base.

Regardless, I don’t believe immigration will be a dominant issue of the presidential election. The economy will dominate the conversation. Trump and Republicans will try to make Americans believe that they were better off before the pandemic and that Joe Biden has made life more difficult. Democrats will tout a record of legislative accomplishments that include numerous bipartisan bills. Unless it turns south, they’ll take credit for a strong economy with low unemployment and growing wages. If gas prices continue to go down, that’s an added benefit.

Other topics that we’ll hear about in the coming months include abortion, Ukraine, and Gaza. I suspect that the foreign policy issues will take a back seat. While both the situations in Ukraine and Gaze deserve attention, neither will be big drivers of the electorate. Abortion, on the other hand, could be the determining issue for a lot of voters, especially young women. It could also serve as a wedge between otherwise conservative voters and the GOP.

Right now, the political environment is shifting quickly in favor of Biden and the Democrats. While we have a long way to go and a lot could change, the economy is always a dominant driver of voter sentiment and the news keeps getting better and people’s views are finally reflecting the reality. Abortion is going to be a major wedge issue and as we increasingly see horrific tales of women with medical life-threatening medical problems and children, often victims of rape or incest, forced to give birth, voters will sour on Republican policies. Immigration is the unknown, but I don’t think the failure to pass legislation will be as good for the GOP as some Republican Members of Congress seem to think.

All of these matters may seem national in scope but all will have an effect on what happens in North Carolina elections this fall. In a state that is evenly divided, despite the gerrymandering, small shifts in either direction at the national election can influence what happens here.