Warning sirens for the GOP

Recent polls and elections signal a crashing political environment for the party in power.

A host of polls, both state and national, have dropped in the last few weeks. Combined, they paint a picture of a building wave that would sweep Republicans out of power if the election was held today. Of course, the election is still a year away, but the party that controls the White House and Congress is watching its support collapse in real time.

The most recent poll is the Marist one that dropped this morning showing Democrats with 14-point advantage in the generic Congressional ballot. According to the poll, 55% of Americans would vote for the Democrat in their district and only 41% would support the Republican. Independent voters are driving the Democrats’ advantage. They would support the Democrat by a 33% margin.

Maybe the poll is an outlier, but it comes on the heals of an NBC survey that showed Democrats with an eight-point advantage two weeks ago. Both polls show Donald Trump deeply underwater. The Marist poll shows a 39% approval rating with 56% disapproving. The NBC poll shows 40% approving, 52% disapproving.

North Carolina polls are showing a similar trend. According to the latest Carolina Journal poll, Democrats hold a four point advantage in the legislative generic ballot after trailing Republicans all year. Trump is underwater in the state by six points, 53-47. In the U.S. Senate race, former Governor Roy Cooper leads Trump-toady Michael Whatley by nine points.

A Catawba College poll has similar findings. In that poll Trump is underwater by eight points, 52-44. North Carolinians also blamed Republicans in Congress or the President for the recent shutdown.

Taken together, these polls show a tough political environment for Republicans both nationally and in North Carolina. Polls, though, are only one indication of the political environment. The screaming siren for Republicans was the election two weeks ago. Democrats won in places big and small. They improved their margins in rural, suburban, and urban areas across the country.

Combined, the polls and election results should have Republicans scrambling. Instead, they appear to be doubling down. They don’t seem to understand the root of the dissatisfaction.

Instead of working to address rising costs, they are hampering efforts that could make life easier for Americans. They’ve refused to stand up to Trump on tariffs that have increased food prices. They are opposing extending health care subsidies that would keep premiums down. They voted to cut Medicaid that will strip health care away from millions of Americans. They’ve essentially abandoned the working class that gave them their majorities in Congress and the White House.

They’ve also allowed a backdrop to the news that is unsettling on a number of fronts. After making release of the Epstein files a campaign issue designed to gin up their Q-anon base, they’ve been fighting to keep them hidden. In the process, they made Donald Trump look guilty, drawing attention to decades of his scandalous sex life. Republicans in Congress look like they’ve been complicit in a coverup.

While people overwhelmingly want immigration controlled, they didn’t expect to see military operations carried out by masked men hauling people off in vans. The Catawba College poll notes that North Carolinians disapprove of sending the military into cities by a margin of 49%-43%. A solid majority of independent voters disagree with military deployments by double digits. And that poll was done before Trump sent ICE into North Carolina to harass communities here.

Republicans have a year to switch gears. So far, they have shown little inclination to deal with the source of the publics’ dissatisfaction. Instead, they’ve wrapped themselves around Donald Trump, believing that the American public voted for his despotic ways instead of just rejecting the Biden administration. If they want to be competitive next year, they will need to put some daylight between themselves and the president, something they’ve been scared to do.