41 Comments

I see from your remarks, you lack a clear understanding of history. The Donald has extraordinarily little concern for this country or its almost perfect democracy. He is like any narcissist; he only sees what the office offers in terms of furthering his personal interest in wealth and power. It evident from the tactics he employs which are said to be influenced by Hitler, pose a threat to American democracy. Creditable observers have noted that much of Trump's rhetoric reflects the strategies and language used by Hitler in the early 1930s to destabilize German democracy. Folks who fail to understand history are doomed to repeat it . Hopefully, you do not possess any attributes that Trump and his MAGA followers consider undesirable.

Expand full comment

I agree with you. The polls are not persuasive for me and Trump has very little room to grow, if any.

Expand full comment

What has been the turnover in her staff?

I believe it was either 92% or 95%.

Is that the person you want in the White House?

Expand full comment

What was the turnover in Trump’s White House?

Expand full comment

I see your point - Brookings says 92%.

But Kamala is and has always been the protege of the Democrat machine from the Bay Area onward.

She’s a career government employee / politician.

She benefits from being in an environment tailored to people like her.

Trump is a citizen politician in a professional politician world.

He depended on Washington insiders for advice with predictable results.

He sounds as if he isn’t that naive anymore.

Expand full comment

Trump could not be hired by any government agency. His conviction on 34 felony counts involving fraud, coupled with numerous pending indictments would clearly disqualify him. He can not even buy or possess a firearms.

Expand full comment

Why on earth would Trump apply for a government job?

And it looks yo me like the best thing American do right now is elect this felon President.

So, what does that say about the Democrats since they can’t do as well as even a felon?

Expand full comment

My reply was placed in the wrong order. Look at the above remarks re history

Expand full comment

Could you please provide us with some details regarding the recent turnover? Specifically, we would like to know who left, what their job duties were, and the reasons for their departure.

Expand full comment

I appreciate the effort in providing the Senate reports. However, one is current, and the other is three years old, which do not address my question. Could you please provide specific details regarding recent turnover, including names and dates of service ending? Additionally, I would appreciate concise answers rather than lengthy volumes. Please do not waste my time

Expand full comment

I might add: I am an avid admirer of Nate "the Magician" Silver. Nate, who earns his livelihood by analyzing baseball, is reputed to be exceptionally skilled in his field. He has conducted over a hundred scenarios, with Harris emerging victorious in fifty-five instances and the orange conman prevailing in forty-seven. Additionally, he forecasts a 4% probability of an electoral college tie. Absent any significant developments between now and election day, I am confident in Nate's projections.

Expand full comment

That’s helpful. Thanks.

Expand full comment

I think these are reliable. It is a fact that he is working for Polymarket and it is a fact that Polymarket has a relationship with Peter Thiel. You’re entitled to your opinion. I believe he is unreliable.

Expand full comment

Many polls and their administrators show inherent bias. I am more interested in horse racing than baseball. Nat, a businessperson, excels in abstract mathematics. His predictions are based on polls he uses for his calculations. To understand polls better, examine the questions they ask. For instance, the question of who won the 2020 election can elicit  different answers, but there is only one correct answer. If I buy an  NDR on the way to a local horse race, that paper will not tell me the name of the winning horse but it gives  me work out times and history. If a horse has been a loser, much like Trump with a prior record two impeachments, conviction of  34 felonies ,judicially called   a rapist, and a business career of six bankruptcies and backs a national ban on abortion, I would be a fool to  bet on him. But some folks will, that is why schools grade on the curve.

Expand full comment

My security program regards that source as questionable. Perhaps you can cite a more reliable source. There out there.

Expand full comment

There are several articles to this effect, and I’ve heard it from several people here in DC who are in a position to know:

https://www.alternet.org/nate-silver-stuart-stevens-polymarket/

Expand full comment

While hearsay might hold value in your realm, it holds no sway in mine. I heard that Trump won the 2020 election, but we all know that is a lie!

Expand full comment

Nate Silver is getting money from Peter Thiel. I don’t believe a word he says. This is the same guy who predicted a Hillary victory with a 99% plus probability.

Expand full comment

Thiel's career has not been without controversies. His support for Donald Trump and his critiques of higher education have been polarizing. Additionally, his involvement in the lawsuit against Gawker, which resulted in the media company's bankruptcy, raised ethical questions. Thiel financed the lawsuit brought by Hulk Hogan against Gawker for invasion of privacy, a move seen by some as a vindictive act against a media outlet that had previously outed him as gay.

Expand full comment

I place no credibility in what Christian nationalist say, and little what I hear on Fox Noise.

Expand full comment

Nate sold the business several years ago. It was his successor, not Nate, who was involved thereafter. Accuracy is paramount, especially when citing facts to support your opinion.

Expand full comment

I voted today. Unlike in previous experiences, I was not approached by enthusiastic members of the Republican party while standing in line. I was spared from receiving unsolicited voting guides and misleading information claiming that Republicans, under their current leadership of the orange Jesus would set the country on the right path and that an idyllic future awaited me. There were no grandiose promises of a miraculous transformation upon stepping outside my front door. I attribute this to the efforts of young lady, wearing the orange vest of a election worker who patrolled the line, preventing these shenanigans. It went well.

Expand full comment

Polls are meaningless now.

But one thing, don’t bet on Republican voters not turning out. The first day early voting, the rural / small towns had way way heavier turnout than Triangle and Meck.

Expand full comment

Early voting figures often provide an indication of the likely trends in an election. Historically, high voter turnout has tended to favor the Democrats. However, former President Trump has adopted a new strategy. He is now encouraging Republicans to purchase his branded merchandise such as bibles, watches, and sneakers, and to participate in early voting. Could this signal a shift in the Republican Party's approach?

Expand full comment

Trump is going to win the electoral college

Expand full comment

Your serious! or is this wishful thinking based on the misguided belief that divine intervention will step in step in an make a twice impeached, convicted felon and judicially declared rapist the second coming...

Expand full comment

Another thing to keep in mind about polling right now is that Republican pollsters, to use Steve Bannon's phrasing, are flooding the zone with shit. They're publishing huge numbers of polls that have been designed to target mostly Trump supporters to make it look like Trump has much more support than he really does, in hopes of discouraging Dems from voting. Don't fall for it. Don't think we've got in the bag and you don't need to vote, either. Get out there and cast your vote, and encourage everyone in your life to do the same.

Expand full comment

Two anecdotes here in Raleigh: the post office seems to be nearly out of postcard stamps. Why? Tons of postcards written by Harris supporters which are being mailed right now.

Also - I called the Wake County Board if Elections today about my month-old application to become a poll worker. They haven’t got to mine - overwhelmed by apps - about 100 a day. They have processed over 8,000 applications so far, and all positions are filled.

Engagement is HUGE here in Wake County!

Expand full comment

A lot of Trump’s followers are dead now. Trump killed them by talking them into taking Ivermectin, drinking bleach, shining lights up their asses or not getting vaccinated.

Expand full comment

What are some groups that work on Black GOTV?

Expand full comment

The Poor People’s Campaign does a fantastic job.

Expand full comment

Thanks

Expand full comment

What are some good groups to donate to that promote black voter turnout?

Expand full comment

I fully agree. I don't blame pollsters for getting likely outcomes wrong as much as I blame voters for not voting the way they told the pollsters they would. People change their mind. People like to keep their true intention to themselves. People wrapped up in the clubbiness of a party or politician (like the MAGA cult) don't like or are afraid to admit they aren't on-board with their friends. This has been my working theory on the validity of polling for a while: The "polling" is accurate but the "validity" of the data is not. I'm looking to an early result on Election Night so all my Democratic friends and lovers of the Constitution can start the party early.

Expand full comment

After canvassing in some red areas of Forsyth Co, I became discouraged and frustrated by the polls that say the race is close even as Trump becomes more unhinged. Recently someone erected a huge “Stop Kamunism” sign in Stokes Co. and it left me scared to even drive through there. Would they be trying so hard because she has a strong chance of winning? Your article gives me hope.

Expand full comment

Walz will be in Winston-Salem also on Thursday. Keep your fingers crossed, I so hope we will turn NC blue this time. It is going to be a close vote in NC. Many people hours have been spent by volunteers in NC.

Expand full comment

All this makes perfect sense Thomas. I hope you are right. I'm afraid NC continues voting for Trump but believe Harris can win without it. I hope NC does the right thing.

Expand full comment

You are so damn smart!

Expand full comment