Why North Carolina has not followed Virginia or Georgia

And why Democrats should keep trying

In the hunt for electoral votes and U.S. Senate seats, North Carolina has proven to be an elusive quarry for Democrats. The state is always billed as one of the nation’s most competitive, but Democrats haven’t won a federal race since 2008 when Obama eked out a win over John McCain and Kay Hagan unseated incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole. Still, the margins tend to be razor thin and the make up of the electorate makes the state too tempting for Democrats to abandon it. Besides, North Carolinians seem to prefer Democrats in state executive seats like governor and attorney general, so they aren’t sour on the party as a whole.

For years, political prognosticators believed North Carolina would follow Virginia, becoming increasingly blue as the state population grew and it became more urban. It hasn’t happened. Instead, Georgia became the next Southern state to provide Democrats Senators and electoral votes.

So what happened? North Carolina is still a far more rural state than its northern neighbor. It’s less diverse than Georgia. And Donald Trump changed the trajectory of the electorate.

Despite being one of the fastest growing states in the nation, North Carolina still has a very substantial rural population. According to Carolina Demography at UNC-CH, 43.5% of the people of the state live in non-municipal areas and a majority of the counties are considered rural. In contrast, about 70% of Virginia residents live in the state’s three largest metropolitan areas, Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. Virginia’s more educated and diverse urban voters keep the state voting Democratic at the federal level, even if they elected a Republican governor in the lower turnout off-year election of 2021.

While growth is making North Carolina far more diverse than it has been historically, the state is still less diverse than Georgia. North Carolina’s population is about 22% African American, 3.5% Asian, and 10.5% Hispanic. Georgia, in contrast, is about 33% Black, 5% Asian, and 10.5% Hispanic. African Americans are Democrats’ most loyal constituency while Asian and Hispanic voters tend to favor Democrats by hefty margins.

North Carolina’s path to a more progressive electorate is different from its neighbors. The state is attracting a more educated populous in areas like Charlotte and the Triangle, but it’s also attracting a lot of retirees along the coast, in the mountains, and in the piedmont in places like Moore County. Those younger voters and families moving to cities might be voting more Democratic, but those older voters are both more Republican and more likely to vote. In 2020, 86% of baby boomers voted. According to exit polls, voters over 65-years-old gave Trump a 19-point advantage in North Carolina.

The candidacy of Donald Trump also disrupted the state’s trajectory. He awakened a lot of older White voters who had not been active in recent elections. At the same time, African American turnout dropped slightly from its peak during the Obama years. In an evenly divided state, the loss of a relatively few Democratic base voters and the increase of Republican base voters has given the GOP an advantage.

In 2020, North Carolina saw its highest turnout in recent history. More than 75% of registered turned out to vote. The state has not had a turnout of more than 70% in the previous 50 years. Among Republicans, 81% showed up at the polls and White voters over performed by 3%, making up 66% of the 2020 electorate but only 63% of the state registration. Democrats had a turnout of 75%, nothing to sneeze at, but not enough to offset the GOP surge. In the end, Trump won the state by a little over 1% and Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham would likely have unseated incumbent Senator Thom Tillis if not for a sex scandal.

Despite the disappointing election cycles since Obama’s 2008 win, Democrats nationally need to stick with North Carolina. As a recent Carolina Forward report showed, the largest and fastest growing counties are becoming more Democratic. The most heavily Republican counties are losing population. Suburban GOP counties are becoming more Democratic every election cycle as they increase in population.

North Carolina also has a significant number of swing voters. Governor Roy Cooper and Attorney General Josh, both Democrats, won twice with Trump on the ballot. Those voters might not be ready to vote for Trump in 2024.

Population growth has kept Democrats competitive in the state while exceptional turnout has given Republicans the edge in elections. For Democrats to win, they need to increase turnout among younger voters in urban areas. In 2020, voters under 40-years-old made up 37% of the registered voters but only 31% of the electorate. They gave Biden a 15-point advantage over Trump. Had they turned out at just a few points higher, they would have carried him to victory.

In 2024, Democrats should assume that with Trump on the ticket, Republican turnout will be close to 2020 levels. Republicans here are betting on a base election, likely nominating extremists like Mark Robinson for governor, Dan Bishop for attorney general, and Trump. Democrats should use the extremist ticket to motivate younger voters and those new to the state. While the blatant homophobia, xenophobia, and antisemitism of that trio might play well among the GOP’s oldest base voters, it will likely scare and disturb the voters Democrats need to motivate to go the polls. There’s a clear path to victory for Democrats in North Carolina. They just need to fight for it.