Biden's record is on the ballot whether he is or not

Democrats should spend less time fantasizing about who would replace him and more time educating voters about what he's done

Well, this morning Chris Cooper beat me to the punch. The political science professor at Western Carolina University said essentially what I was going to say about the New York Times/Sienna poll that’s putting Democrats across the country on edge. The poll shows Biden trailing Trump in five swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.

Cooper’s analysis is, mostly, that now is too early to take the poll seriously. He concludes that the poll tells us that the race is a very close and that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win. I think that’s about right and it’s also what we already know.

Cooper also took issue with some of the data in the crosstabs, in particular, the 20% of Black voters who are supposedly going to vote Republican. It’s not going to happen. Almost every election cycle in North Carolina, we see polls that show Democrats hemorrhaging African American support. Republicans get giddy, but it never pans out. Black voters come home because they are reminded by their own leaders that Democrats are the party of equal rights and Republicans are actively trying to suppress their votes, oppose affirmative action, cut funding to their schools and colleges, and deny their role in the history of the country.

I don’t think the numbers are necessarily wrong. They just illustrate the folly of polling before people are really thinking about the election or have engaged with advertising, activists, or their friends and family about the election. African Americans reflect the poll sample as a whole. What people are telling pollsters today has little relation to how they will vote a year from now.

That doesn’t mean that the poll is irrelevant. People have grave concerns about Biden right now, especially young people. They are blaming him for the discord in the world that’s dominating the news right now. They are having difficulty purchasing houses and they’re still mad about the inflation that drove prices up.

I don’t believe that the 2024 election will turn on foreign policy issues. Voters will decide mostly based on their financial well-being. They also may consider Biden’s age and Trump’s indictments/convictions. Democrats have a year to figure out how to shore up the lackluster support of voters under 40 and persuade swing voters that electing Biden is in their best interest.

If the economy keeps growing, wages keep rising, and gas prices keep falling, Democrats will have an easier task. If we move into recession, interest rates keep rising, and families take on more debt, they will have a tougher time making their case. Regardless, we don’t have enough information to assume that the polls this week are predictive of anything.

Two other people who have good takes on the polls are Dan Pfeiffer and Simon Rosenberg. Both look at data from other polls to give a more complete view of the electorate and its thoughts right now. They are both long-time Democratic strategists who would be worth following.

Pfeiffer acknowledges the poll is worrisome for Democrats but sees it more of a roadmap for Democrats. He says the key to victory is converting what he describes as “double haters,” people who are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. These voters are likely key to winning in 2024. While they are down on Biden, they likely would approve of what he has done on things like lowering the cost of prescription drugs, passing the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, and increasing manufacturing in the U.S. if they only knew he has done them. They are low-information voters who are difficult to reach. That’s the Biden campaign’s challenge—educating voters about what he’s done.

Rosenberg points to the Navigator poll that shows Biden’s policies are popular and that Democrats in Congress are far more popular than Republicans. He notes that Congressional Republicans’ favorability has dropped by double digits since this summer. In contrast, Democrats have stayed stable. That’s good news overall, but by no means any reason to rest easy.

Finally, the poll has again spurred people to call on Joe Biden to drop out of the race. I doubt that’s going to happen. Instead of fantasizing about who might replace him on the ticket, Democrats should focus on getting the word out about his accomplishments, because his record will be on the ballot regardless of the nominee.