Blue collar blues

Democrats need to reconnect with the working class.

Memorial Day

Social media has done well reminding us that Memorial Day is a day of solemn remembrance, not one of celebration. After a few decades of relative peace following the end of the Vietnam War, people thought of Memorial Day as the beginning of summer or an excuse for a sale more than a tribute to those gave their lives to protect our country. Photos of fallen soldiers in social media feeds remind us of the sacrifice of people who were mostly just normal citizens fulfilling their patriotic duty.

Regardless of your political views, let’s remember those who died to make sure you can express them without fear of retribution.

Politics

The New York Times published an article examining the realignment of American politics since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016. It notes the shift among working-class voter toward the Republican Party, examining counties that moved toward the GOP for three consecutive elections.

“All told, Mr. Trump has increased the Republican Party’s share of the presidential vote in each election he’s been on the ballot in close to half the counties in America,” according to the article. “By contrast, Democrats have steadily expanded their vote share in those three elections in only 57 of the nation’s 3,100-plus counties.”

Democrats are gaining ground in a small number of wealthy, highly educated counties. Republicans are gaining in a large swath of counties where fewer residents have college degrees. The Democratic areas represent a little more than 8 million Americans while Republican areas make up almost 43 million people. Republican-shifting counties moved right by about 13% while Democratic-shifting counties moved left by about 8%.

It’s an ugly picture for Democrats. The shifts toward Republicans include working class African Americans and Latino voters. If Democrats don’t stop these trends they could find themselves a minority party for decades.

While Democrats should be concerned and clearly need to make adjustments, the counties that are moving right, at least in North Carolina, are losing population. The ones shifting blue are gaining. Still, Democrats cannot continue to hemorrhage working class votes to Republicans because the population shifts are slow and the number of blue collar voters swamps the number of white collar voters.

I don’t think working class voters are embracing Republican policies as much as they are rejecting the Democratic Party. They are abandoning Democrats because they believe the party prioritizes cultural issues over economic ones. The party has been defined by its left flank and is seen as focusing on protecting the rights of minority groups more than helping struggling families.

The NYT articled noted, “The median American household income is around $80,000. Places with median incomes lower than that account for 95 percent of counties voting steadily more Republican.” The North Carolina Budget and Tax Center says that a family of four in North Carolina needs $97,550 to live comfortably, an income columnist Tom Campbell believes is too low. The median income for a family of four in the state is $69,904. In other words, more than half the state is struggling to make ends meet.

Working class voters don’t believe the system is working for them. They see the Democrats emphasizing abortion rights, immigrants rights, transgender rights, etc., instead of the kitchen table issues that impact their daily lives. They are looking for the party of change and they see Democrats as the party of the economic status quo.

When Donald Trump tells the majority of voters who don’t make enough to live comfortably that everything is horrible, they nod along. He might not offer real solutions but at least they feel seen. Democrats, in contrast, have failed to effectively communicate with them. The party hasn’t made their case that they are better than the Republicans, in part, because they can’t reach them and, in part, because they don’t try.

Republicans have built and an extensive communications infrastructure that filters the information going to certain communities. They’ve attacked traditional media sources and eroded trust in the mainstream media while expanding their reach by buying local newspapers, TV, and radio stations. They’ve aggressively courted influencers on digital media to push their narrative and world view. A lot of working class voters, especially in rural areas, now get all of their information either through conservative outlets or digital properties with a conservative bent.

To win back working class voters, Democrats need to refocus their overall message and find a way to reach voters who have lost faith in them. They shouldn’t abandon the rights of minorities but they should prioritize relief to families that worry they are on the brink of economic calamity. And they should highlight GOP plans to cut health care programs and explode the deficit while giving massive tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

The current situation for Democrats is alarming, but not catastrophic. The country is going through a political realignment that offers opportunity as well as threats to the party. Working class voters are voting against the left’s cultural agenda more than for the Republicans’ economic one. Republicans like Senator Josh Hawley who oppose their party’s effort to cut Medicaid and Medicare understand that their hold on blue collar workers is tenuous. Democrats can still win them on the merits.

The party has the luxury right now to reflect and rebuild. Anything that goes wrong with country or economy will get blamed on Republicans who control government. They can invest in infrastructure that more effectively reaches beyond traditional media. The should engage on digital properties with more conservatives or less political audiences. And they should talk less about social and cultural concerns and talk more about economic ones to begin to redefine themselves before the 2028 election cycle begins. Democrats can use economic concerns to drive a wedge between Republicans giving tax cuts to billionaires and the working class families in precarious financial situations.

What Democrats can’t do is the same thing they’ve been doing.