Cooper leads Whatley, Earls leads Stevens

Democrats in North Carolina get more good news.

Sarah Stevens, left, and Anita Earls, right.

Carolina Forward is out with a poll this morning that should make Democrats in North Carolina happy. Josh Stein is popular, the generic ballot favors Democrats, and Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley outside of the margin of error. There’s not much to complain about.

Trump’s approval ratings are driving most of these sentiments. He’s underwater by 12 points with a majority, 55%, disapproving of the job he’s doing. For reference, a Spectrum poll in 2018, Trump’s first midterm, had him underwater by seven points with 50% disapproving in April that year, while a Civitas poll had him with a 51% approval rating in May. This year, his unfavorable rating should have Republicans nervous.

Both the Congressional and legislative ballots show Democrats with a narrow advantage of five points or so. I’m not sure that’s enough to flip either legislative chamber, but it’s certainly enough to give Democrats the power to sustain Stein’s veto. It may be enough to carry Democratic US House Representative Don Davis to re-election in NC-01 and even flip NC-11, giving Jamie Ager an edge over Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards.

Josh Stein is still riding high. He’s done a great job as governor, understanding both his strengths and limitations. He’s used his experience and relationships to keep rancor with the Republicans in the legislature relatively low while pushing back when he needs to. His approval rating is 51% with 35% disapproving. He even has a 23% approval rating among Republicans. That may all change when and if he runs for re-election in two years, but it’s a strong place to start.

Cooper leads Whatley by seven points, 49-42. Cooper is bumping up against 50% early in the race and Whatley has not been able to do much to cut into his stubbornly consistent lead. I’ve watched a few Republicans speculate that Cooper has a ceiling of 49%. That’s some serious wishful thinking, but it gives me a chuckle to watch them rationalize.

In what is arguably the most important race of the cycle, Democratic Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls has an edge on her challenger, Republican Senator Sarah Stevens, by four points. That’s certainly not enough of a lead to be comfortable, but Earls has consistently held a narrow lead over Stevens across polls. Democrats need to hold the seat if they want to take control of the Supreme Court anytime soon. They need to be able to play by the new rules that Newby has established that ignore precedent and allow the court to act like a quasi-legislative body.

The poll has little downside for Democrats mainly because independent voters are abandoning the GOP. It might only last this election cycle, but right now those folks disapprove of Trump by 34 points, approve of Stein by 21, favor Democrats on generic ballots by two to one, support Cooper over Whatley by 23, and Earls over Stevens by 17. If gas prices keep going up, expect the cycle to get worse for Republicans.

For comparison, Trump is underwater by about 26 points nationally according to the latest CBS/YouGov poll. North Carolina is considerably more conservative than the country as a whole. If Democrats in the state want to keep the advantage they have today, their policies going forward need to reflect that reality. They should stick to kitchen table issues that have broad appeal instead of engaging Republicans in divisive culture wars with narrow constituencies.