Cooper's position is strong

The political environment is better for Democrats and the fundamentals are in his favor.

A poll released on Friday shows Roy Cooper with a commanding lead over Michael Whatley, 50-32. I wish it were true, but it’s not. The Carolina Journal poll released a few days earlier is probably more accurate. That poll has Cooper leading by eight, 49-41.

Outliers always exist in polling and the one released by Healthier United showing Cooper with an 18-point lead is one of those. It’s just a hazard of polling. Besides, what a poll says today has little relevance to what will happen next fall. Polls are just a snapshot in time.

That said, a look across polls shows Cooper and Democrats in general in a strong position right now. A Public Policy Polling survey released in mid-March showed Cooper up by three, but indicated that most other Democrats were in good shape. The only Democrat trailing in the PPP poll is Court of Appeals Judge Toby Hampson and he’s within the margin of error.

Cooper and Governor Josh Stein both have positive favorability ratings while Whatley breaks even. People still don’t know much about Whatley, giving Democrats an opportunity to define him negatively. It’s a tough place to start a race.

The Carolina Journal poll shows the political environment favoring Democrats slightly. On the generic ballot for legislature, Democrats hold a two-point advantage and for Congress they hold a four-point lead. Both numbers are within the margin of error.

The Healthier United poll shows Democrats with a substantial lead. For state legislature, that survey says voters prefer a Democrat by eleven points. Again, that’s probably not realistic, but it follows the general trend that the political environment is tough for Republicans right now.

All three polls show Donald Trump underwater in North Carolina. That’s a bad sign for the GOP. The election will most likely be a referendum on the party in the White House. Trump could drag Republicans down in November if he doesn’t right the ship.

One factor that doesn’t get enough discussion is that Cooper is the first Democrat running in a midterm with a Republican president in the White House since 2002. I’m not sure how much that’s worth, but I’ve got to think it’s at least a point or two. Cooper’s position is remarkably strong. He’s better known with a higher favorability rating. Whatley has not proven himself as a candidate yet. Whatley is still largely undefined in the minds of voters. Trump is unpopular. The year is trending to be a good one for Democrats.

I’d put my money on Cooper.