The Republican cope game is strong! This weekend, North Carolina Republican operative Jonathan Felts reposted a tweet by a right-wing news outlet that compared polling in this year’s Senate race to the Tillis-Cunningham race in 2020. The outlet claimed, “@WhatleyNC is already ahead of where Thom Tillis was 6 years ago, and Tillis went on to win by about two percent.” I guess now they’re waiting for Cooper’s sexting scandal to drop.
The comparison is ridiculous on all fronts. This is not a presidential election cycle. Michael Whatley is not an incumbent. Roy Cooper is a former governor who has been elected statewide six times. Most importantly, the political environment right now is nothing like the political environment in 2020. It’s all just cope and spin.
An AARP poll from Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic pollster Impact Research shows Whatley trailing by eleven points and Cooper with a majority at 53%. Cooper has a positive favorability while Whatley is upside down. The national money is already leaving the state, and that trend will accelerate as we get into October.
I trust this poll because Impact Research is John Anzalone’s firm. He’s been polling North Carolina for more than 30 years, and his firm knows how to get a sample right. With firms from both parties involved, the samples and questions should be free of bias.
Republicans are desperately trying to convince their rank-and-file that they can still win this cycle, but not even the donors believe it. At a donor retreat this weekend, GOP donors scoffed at a pollster who told them Republicans might be able to pick up a Senate seat. Attendees scoffed at the report, with one calling it “delusional,” according to Axios.
Republicans are hanging on a massive financial advantage. Their third-party groups have stockpiled cash and appear ready to spend it. According to the New York Times, GOP-aligned super PACs have reserved $220 million more in ads than Democrats. The Republican National Committee also has far more cash than its counterpart at the Democratic National Committee.
On the flip side, Democratic candidates have raised far more money than their GOP opponents. Candidate money goes further because campaigns are guaranteed the lowest unit rate for television ads, while outside groups pay market rate.
I don’t think ads have much impact at this stage of the campaign, at least not for those at the top of the ticket. Ads have become increasingly less effective over the years, in part because people no longer believe them. They may move things a little around the edges with the least informed voters, but they can’t shift the political environment, which is the force driving voters right now.
For every ad that voters see, they see a gas station marquee that reads $4.15 per gallon. Hamburger is about $7.00 per pound. Even cheap coffee is no longer cheap. No ad can change those realities, and voters blame the party in power for the hits to their pocketbooks.
The late money flooding campaigns is probably too late. It would have been better spent organizing. Mobilizing voters takes time, and even a big influx of cash can’t jumpstart a GOTV program in October. I suspect it’s too little, too late.
We’re five weeks out from the election. We could still see an October surprise, but it would need to be a significant national event to alter the political environment. The electorate is driven by rising gas prices and the increasing cost of goods caused by diesel fuel that’s $3.00 per gallon more than it was in September 2024. Finally, Republicans have lost the confidence of voters who were told Trump would lower prices and keep us out of foreign wars. Changing those perceptions in five weeks will not be easy.
Tillis also was a strong closer. He took advantage of any breaks he got and undecideds broke late for him. Whatley is Trump's sock puppet, and the puppet master is flailing.
And then there were those “PSAs” that were “Paid for by the US Government”. Illegal (probably) but as Napoleon famously said “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The last one was a clumsy reboot of one of DJT’s 2024 ads, where he tells people how he’s going to bring down prices and get the “warmongers” out of government. And the pope that’s aimed at? It’s not squishy Democrats or Independents (because there aren’t any), that’s playing directly to his base — who is sitting there maybe not really recalling everything he promised them and didn’t deliver, and he’s doing us the favor of reminding them.
I haven’t seen a poll in anything resembling recent memory that ha Cooper up by less than a Half Stein. And a few of them put him at a Full Stein (which I think is overly optimistic, but anything is possible in this economy).
And if anybody thinks to remind people that the *worst* parts of the OBuBBA bill were timed to hit *after* the midterms, when things are already about as grim as most living people have ever seen, that 29% you saw last week will keep cratering until there’s no floor left.